Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
320 AM EDT WED MAY 10 2000

CONVECTION CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS WRN AND CENTRAL NYS
AND NW PA AND NOT LOOKING TOO IMPRESSIVE IN OUR FA. STATIONARY
BOUNDARY ACROSS NY/PA BORDER THAT FIRED THE STORMS HAS MOVED NORTH
THRU THE AREA. SCATTERED PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FA NOT
SHOWING MUCH ORGANIZATION. THUS SVR WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
PER SPC.

SFC LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS NORTHEAST TODAY ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY...DRAGGING THE LONG AWAITED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. MID/UL TROF ALSO MOVING ENEWD AND WILL REACH ERN NYS AROUND
12Z THIS MORNING. QUESTION FOR TODAY IS HOW MUCH INSTABILITY THERE
WILL BE ACROSS THE FA GIVEN EARLIER CONVECTION AND AMT OF CLD COVER.
NGM MUCH MORE UNSTABLE TODAY VS ETA. ATMOS HAS BEEN WORKED OVER WITH
TODAYS CONVECTION EXCPT FOR AREAS ACROSS NE PA THAT DID NOT SEE AS
MUCH. ALSO MORE SUN ACROSS ERN SECTIONS AND LATER ARRIVAL OF FROPA.
GOOD LOW LEVEL FLOW SWLY OF 35-40KTS AT 12Z IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN
DURING THE MORNING. GENERALLY EXPECT A COMPROMISE IN MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH ISOLATED SVR POSSIBLE WITH LEADING EDGE OF
TSRA AHEAD OF SHRA AND FROPA. ETA AND NGM KEEP PRECIP IN AREA THRU
ABOUT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT SO WILL CONTINUE WITH EVENING CHC THEN
CLEARING FOR MOST ZONES.

QUIET WEATHER IN STORE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

.BGM...NONE.

JML

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-101800-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
844 AM EDT WED MAY 10 2000

...SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL
NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD TODAY AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FINGER LAKES AND CENTRAL
SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK LATE THIS MORNING...AND THEN MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA
THIS AFTERNOON.

SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHICH MAY
CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER
INFORMATION FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES OR WARNINGS. WEATHER INFORMATION CAN
ALSO BE FOUND ON OUR WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/ER/BGM.

BRADY