Severe Thunderstorm Warning 66, NWS La Crosse, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED COORDINATION LINE AND DATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
422 AM CDT THU JUN 1 2000

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS MORNING IS WHEN THE HEAVY RAIN WILL MOVE
OUT OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA...THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...AND
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON.

THE LATEST PROFILER DATA AND INFRARED SATELLITE DATA INDICATES THAT
THE BACK BUILDING MCS...WHICH PRODUCED THE FLOODING RAINS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN
OVERNIGHT...IS BEGINNING TO BECOME A FORWARD MOVING MCS. THE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS FEEDING OUR MCS IS STARTING TO FEED THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA AND SOUTH DAKOTA.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH
ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA THIS MORNING. THEY ALSO SHOW THAT THE
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. HOWEVER...FROM
LOOKING AT THE SURFACE WIND FIELDS...THE ACTUAL LOW PLACEMENT ON THE
MODELS IS TOO FAR EAST. THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHWEST
IOWA AND ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. A RELATIVELY
WEAK CAP WILL DEVELOP JUST SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND THIS WILL HELP
CAPES TO APPROACH 4000 J/KG. THIS CAP WILL EASILY BREAK ONCE THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. LOOKING AT THE WIND FIELDS...IT APPEARS
THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP INTO A SQUALL LINE. THERE MAY BE
SOME ISOLATED TORNADOES IN THE BREAKS OF THIS LINE AND NEAR THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL END ONCE THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOOKING AT THE MODELS SOUNDINGS...IT
APPEARS THAT THE FWC AND FAN TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS TOO WARM...SO
I WENT ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW GUIDANCE.

THANKS COORDINATION KMKX...KMPX...KDMX...KDVN.

.LSE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH...THIS MORNING...IAZ009>011-030-
       MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ032>034-041>044-053>055-061

BOYNE

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-032>034-
041>044-053>055-061-012300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1158 AM CDT THU JUN 1 2000

...MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST IOWA...
EXTREME SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN TODAY AND
TONIGHT...
...A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TODAY AND
TONIGHT ELSEWHERE...

AT 11 AM...LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED WEST OF MINNEAPOLIS MINNESOTA
WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH OMAHA NEBRASKA. THIS SYSTEM
WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
PUSH NORTH INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. BY MID-
AFTERNOON...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE SOUTH OF THIS
WARM FRONT AND EAST OF THE COLD FRONT. THEREFORE THERE IS A
MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
CHARLES CITY IOWA...TO WINONA MINNESOTA TO THE WISCONSIN DELLS AND
MOST LIKELY AFTER 3 PM TODAY.  THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL
BE DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS LARGE HAIL.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD AND BE LOCATED
IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY MID-EVENING.  ONCE THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH AND WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST...THE SEVERE THREAT OF STORMS
HAS ENDED. SOILS FROM ALL OF THE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ARE VERY
SATURATED.  THEREFORE...ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN THAT OCCURS WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF CREATING
FLOODING PROBLEMS...MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.  HOWEVER...ANY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE SHORT-LIVED.

SPOTTER ACTIVITATION IS ANTICIPATED TODAY AND TONIGHT.  STAY TUNED
TO YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR LATER WEATHER UPDATES.

DB