Severe Thunderstorm Warning 123, NWS La Crosse, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
310 PM CDT TUE AUG 8 2000

...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POSSIBILITY OF EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A LOW CENTER IN SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AND A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING EAST THROUGH WISCONSIN. A SECONDARY LOW WAS LOCATED IN
SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO
MISSOURI. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF LOW TO
MID LEVEL CLOUDS FROM NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ACROSS CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...AND AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS IN NORTHERN IOWA. AREA RADARS
INDICATE SOME SHOWERS UNDER THE CLOUD BAND. KDLH RADAR HAS STRONGER
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...JUST AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE...MOVING TO THE
EAST INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

ETA 12Z RUN KEEPS MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS TO THE NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH NORTHERN WISCONSIN DURING THE EVENING. AT
THE SURFACE...THE MODELS BUILD HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE NIGHT. ETA 18Z RUN BRINGS MODERATELY UNSTABLE CAPE
VALUES OF 3000 J/KG OR MORE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.  HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR SEEN FUNNELING TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 850
MB WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN
COUNTIES. CANT RULE OUT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE...BUT DONT
SEE A GOOD TRIGGER. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE GOING ALL OTHER ZONES.
TEMPERATURES LOOK SIMILIAR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER ON
THURSDAY. SLOWLY WARMING THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

.LSE...NONE.

NELSON