Severe Thunderstorm Warning 98, NWS Amarillo, TX

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
226 PM CDT THU JUN 1 2000

SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO NOSE INTO THE NORTHWEST QUARTER
OF THE FORECAST AREA.  WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BROKEN OUT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL FETCH.  UPPER LOW
NEAR THE BIG BEND IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  RAIN LOOKS LIKE
A GOOD POSSIBILITY THROUGH TONIGHT FOR MOST OF THE AREA.  ONE
AREA OF CONCERN IS THE NORTHWEST WHERE SOME DRIER AIR MAY WORK IN
BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH MAY LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.  LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING WILL BE RETAINED IN ALL ZONES AS PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MOVE OVER THE PANHANDLES.  WE ARE SHYING
AWAY FROM A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH
CLOSELY FOR TRAINING OF ECHOS.

BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN MAY BE IN THE EAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH
THE UPPER LOW.  THE REST OF THE AREA MAY BE IN THE SOUP WITH LOW
CLOUDS...SO WE MAY HAVE TO WAIT FOR MORE DYNAMICS IN THE MID LAYERS
TO PRODUCE SOME RAINFALL THERE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...THE SUBTROPICAL PLUME MAY MOVE BACK TO THE WEST
SLIGHTLY AND THE SURFACE WINDS SHOULD COME AROUND MORE TO THE SOUTH
AND THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY BE ACROSS THE WEST.

THE FLOW ALOFT THEN BECOMES MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST AS WE MOVE INTO
THE EXTENDED FORECAST AND SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE
FLOW.  THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO STICK AROUND...SO CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS PRUDENT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.  ON TUESDAY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL GO DOWN TO SLIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
LOOKS LIKE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SOURCE WILL ALSO GET CUTOFF BY
TUESDAY.

THANK YOU FOR THE COORDINATION LBB.

A FEW NUMBERS TO PONDER:

DHT 58/73 57/78 59 656
AMA 62/75 59/80 61 +55
BVR 62/76 60/79 63 +66

.AMA...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

GOEHRING

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-012200-

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
100 PM CDT THU JUN 1 2000

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.

DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES AS DISTURBANCES MOVE NORTHWARD AROUND AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST. IN ADDITION...A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL PROVIDE A
FURTHER FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS AND POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL. WITH THE LOSS OF0 DAYTIME
HEATING...THIS THREAT WILL LESSEN AS HEAVY RAINFALL BECOMES A
CONCERN.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.

COBB