Severe Thunderstorm Warning 4, NWS Amarillo, TX

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
305 AM CST THU FEB 24 2000

CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWED A LEE TROUGH AT THE SURFACE AND A SHALLOW
RIDGE ALOFT. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND LOWERING PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN THE LEE TROUGH CURRENTLY
IN PLACE. AS A RESULT...SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO
THE BREEZY OR WINDY CATEGORIES TODAY. THIS WILL ADVECT ABUNDANT
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON SETTING
UP A DRYLINE IN THE EASTERN ZONES. THE DRYLINE SHOULD BECOME ACTIVE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING TROUGH. SOME THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE
EASTERN ZONES AND CONTINUE THIS EVENING. THE STORMS SHOULD PUSH OUT
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT AS A LARGE TROUGH ENTERS THE REGION
AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN EASTERN COLORADO. THIS LOW SHOULD PUSH
INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS MOST SIMILAR TO THE ETA/ECMWF SOLUTION. THIS
WILL PRODUCE A COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE FRIDAY DURING
THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AND THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY THAT A
WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FRIDAY. WILL MENTION WINDY CONDITIONS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ANOTHER FAIRLY LARGE TROUGH ENTERS THE
WEST COAST ON SUNDAY SIMILAR TO THE LAST TWO UPPER-TROUGHS AND A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. AT THIS TIME...THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO BE FURTHER SOUTH. THIS MAY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND THERE MAY BE A NEED TO
INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL EVALUATE
THE NEW MRF WHEN IT COMES IN AND MAKE MY DECISION THEN. OTHERWISE...
AFTER A COOLER SATURDAY...EXPECT A PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH TO SET UP
WARMING THINGS UP FOR SUNDA3Y AND MONDAY.

PRELIM CCF...
AMA 74/36 56/28 63 --0
DHT 71/31 55/23 65 --0

.AMA...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

CB

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-242300-

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
110 PM CST THU FEB 24 2000

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE MODERATE
RISK AREA IS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM LIPSCOMB TO
MIAMI TO CLARENDON. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...AS
WELL AS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE
EXTENDING FROM GUYMON OKLAHOMA TO AMARILLO TEXAS TO CANYON TEXAS.

ADEQUATE MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD INTO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
AS A RESULT...THE DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ORGANIZING OVER
THE CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE
EASTWARD THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
WEATHER DISTURBANCE.

THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN AN
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...AND WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE
EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES.
SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WHICH FORM WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE
ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM GUYMON OKLAHOMA TO CANYON
TEXAS...WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA.

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS
FROM THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...BECAUSE OF FAVORABLE
ATMOSPHERIC WIND PROFILES...ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY DEVELOP.

SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR
POSSIBLE ACTIVATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ANDRADE