Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS Amarillo, TX

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
315 PM CDT MON APR 24 2000

GOES SOUNDER DATA CONT TO INDC AXIS OF INSTBY OVR NERN NM...WRN KS...
AND NWRN TX PNHDL/WRN OK PNHDL.  VSBL SATELLITE INDCG CU DVLPG OVR
SAME AREA.  WL CONT WITH IDEA OF ERYR UPDT...CALLING FOR SCT TRW
OVR NWRN...N-CNTRL...AND WRN ZNS THIS EVE.  WL KEEP HIST AREAL
COVERAGE NUMBERS OVR NWRN ZNS.  WL ALSO MENTION PSBLY SVR OVR NWR
ZNS IN AGREEMENT WITH NEW AC.  STEEP LAPSE RATES ACMPYG PAC CDFNT...
WITH GOOD SHEAR PROFILE ANTICIPATED.  H5 AND H7 VOT MAXIMA WL
TRAVERSE MAINLY NRN ZNS.  WL LOWER 1ST PD POPS OVR SERN ZNS TO SLGT
CHC HOWEVER...DUE TO MORE STABLE AMS THIS AREA.  CDFNT WL MOV INTO
NWRN ZNS ARND MIDNIGHT...AND WL BE MOVG OUT OF SERN ZNS BFR SR.
NELY-NLY SFC WNDS BHND CDNFT AOB 20 MPH EXPCD FOR TUE.  THUS...SOME
CAA EXPCD...SO WL LOWER MAX TEMPS FOR TUE.  AMS SHOULD BE TOO DRY
TUE FOR PCPN...SO WL REMOVE POPS FM ALL BUT SERN ZNS...WHERE WL LEAVE
20 PCT IN CASE LIFT AND CNVGNC WITH H8 CDFNT RESULTS IN MRNG PCPN.
NO SGFNT CLDS OR WX EXPCD TUE NGT THRU FRI AS H5 RDG DOMINATES
S-CNTRL CONUS.  DVLPG H5 TROF DEEPENS OVR WRN CONUS...WITH ASSOCD
CDF~NT EXPCD IN PNHDLS ON SAT...SO CHC TRW ALL ZNS ON DAY 5.  03

.AMA...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

COCKRELL

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-242300-

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
125 PM CDT MON APR 24 2000

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SURFACE WAS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
ALSO...A COLD FRONT WAS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN
COLORADO.

CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING AND RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.  BY LATE
AFTERNOON...THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO
INTERACT WITH THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS INCREASING THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE INITIALLY POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.  ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE AREAWIDE
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT...THE DIMINISHING INSTABILITY
AFTER SUNSET WILL LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF STORMS.

DUE TO THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY REMAINING NORTH OF THE PANHANDLES...THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE LOW.  THEREFORE...ACTIVATION OF AREA SPOTTERS AND
EMERGENCY MANAGERS IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

JH

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-242300-

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
340 PM CDT MON APR 24 2000

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.  A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE IN THE
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  AT THE
SURFACE...A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WAS ORIENTED NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN NEW
MEXICO WHILE A COLD FRONT WAS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
COLORADO.

THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE AS
ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AND THE PERIOD OF
MAXIMUM HEATING NEARS.  AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP IN REGION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF
SURFACE TROUGH.  THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST EARLY
NORTHWEST OF A DALHART TO GUYMON LINE WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.  ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...THE DIMINISHING
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE LOSS OF HEATING WILL LIMIT THE STRENGTH AND
COVERAGE OF STORMS.

SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS IN THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
AND NORTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
ACTIVATION.

JH