Severe Thunderstorm Warning 138, NWS Amarillo, TX

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
315 PM CDT SUN JUN 25 2000

FIRST PERIOD OF FORECAST CONTAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY. FIRST
PERIOD IS REALLY SPLIT INTO TWO TIME PERIODS.  PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT...AIRMASS OVER FORECAST AREA PLENTY JUICY...BUT AGAIN DECENT
CAP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR EASTERN SECTIONS. WILL LIKELY
WAIT UNTIL LAST MINUTE FOR INITIAL POPS. MIDNIGHT THROUGH
SUNRISE...MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH FRONT
PUSHING INTO OK PANHANDLE.  ETA AND NGM SPEED IT UP A LITTLE AND PUSH
IT THROUGH THE PANHANDLES BY 12Z. AVN IS SLOWER.  HOWEVER...WITH
STRONG TSTM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN KANSAS
TONIGHT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE FRONT SWEEP IN AS ADVERTISED
IN THE ETA/NGM SOLUTION. WILL INDICATE GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OTHER PROBLEM TO CONSIDER IS FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL.  HEAVY RAINFALL
PAST 48 HOURS OVER THE NORTHCENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE.  A CHECK WITH
OFFICIALS HERE INDICATE HIGHLY SATURATED SOILS AND SWOLLEN CREEKS.
WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR COUNTIES IN THE NORTH CENTRAL
PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY WITH PROSPECTS OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL.

FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE...STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS ON MONDAY
AND CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY.  CLOUDY AND COOLER CONDITIONS A GIVEN...
BUT POPS ARE QUESTIONABLE DEPENDING ON SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY AND
BOUNDARIES THAT MAY DEVELOP IN THE WARMER AIR TO OUR WEST.  BEST
CHANCES DEFINITELY CENTRAL AND WEST WITH LEAST PROBABILITIES IN THE
NORTHEAST.

IN THE EXTENDED WILL CHANGE LITTLE FROM CURRENT FORECAST.  MODELS
INDICATE BUILDING RIDGE...WARMING TEMPERATURES AND RETURN TO
NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES. THEREFORE...CHANCES
OF ACTIVITY MOVING IN FROM MOUNTAINS AGAIN AND CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. FRIDAY LOOKS MORE INTERESTING...BUT NOTE THE
NCEPS PMDEPD AND POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS WITH MRF.

PRELIM NUMBERS...
AMA 65/79 61/82 61 443
DHT 61/76 57/80 61 433

.AMA...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT FOR TXZ002>004.
OK...NONE.

GARCIA/COBB/DAVIS

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-252100-

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
100 PM CDT SUN JUN 25 2000

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE
NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS GENERALLY
EAST OF LINE FROM GUYMON OKLAHOMA TO BORGER.

SMALL SCALE BOUNDARIES FROM THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
COMBINE WITH AN ABUNDANT SUPPLY OF MOISTURE AND DAYTIME
HEATING TO DEVELOP SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON. THE
MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS WITH SOME
MARGINAL LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.

ADDITIONAL...MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM
ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH KANSAS THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND MEET UP WITH OTHER SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO.
WHILE SOME STORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS OVERNIGHT...THE
MAIN THREAT FROM THIS SECOND ROUND OF STORMS WILL BE VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING.

SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE
SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION AFTERNOON OR
EVENING.

COBB