Severe Thunderstorm Warning 114, NWS Amarillo, TX

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
200 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2000

EVERYTHING LOOKS TO STILL BE COMING TOGETHER LATER THIS AFTERNOON
/EVENING FOR SEVERE WX ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN ZONES. PRE-FRONTAL
WIND SHIFT IS RACING SOUTHWARD AND HAS ENTERED THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE. THE CCA IS LAGGING A BIT BEHIND THE WIND SHIFT AND NOW
MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH CENTRAL CO. ALSO A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW IN NORTHEAST NM IS PUSHING A DRYLINE OUT AND INTO THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES ATTM AND IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM GUY TO DHT TO CVN.
THESE TWO BOUNDARY'S ARE MERGING AND CREATING A STRONG AND NOTICEABLE
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY ON THE KAMA RADAR AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE DEEP MOISTURE WHICH IS
STILL IN-PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FA. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL HAVE TO BE WATCH VERY CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE EXPLOSIVE
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE DEWPOINTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA ARE HOLDING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...AND WITH
VERY STEEP LAPSES RATES CAPES ARE EXPECT TO BE AROUND 3500 TO 4500
J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. A MODEST CAP IS HOLDING EVERYTHING TOGETHER
ATTM...BUT THIS CAP IS EXPECT TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY WITH INCREASING
LIFT AND COOLING ALOFT DUE TO THE STRENGTHING TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

WEDNESDAY THERE MAY BE A LITTLE LINGERING CONVECTION WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE OUT. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT
WITH ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER TEMPS. THURSDAY WARMER TEMPS AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE A QUICK RETURN AND MAY BE
ABLE TO KICK OFF A FEW TSTMS AS A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES RIDE OVER
THE AREA IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT. FRIDAY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
WARM WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THE NEXT
SYSTEM IS EXPECT TO SPREAD SHOWERS AND TSTM ACROSS THE AREuA WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN.

SOME PRELIMINARY NUMBERS:
AMA 058/081 057/088 060 7-0
DHT 055/078 055/089 058 500

.AMA...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

ND

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-132300-

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
100 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2000

CORRECTED LAST PARAGRAPH

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.
THE AREA AT RISK IS GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM ELKHART KANSAS...
TO STRATFORD...TO HEREFORD.

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST
COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS...MOVING SOUTH TOWARD THE PANHANDLES.
A PRE-FRONTAL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND A DRYLINE WERE POSITIONED
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND WERE MOVING EAST...THROUGH THE WESTERN
PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES.

THESE SURFACE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND ANY ONE OF THEM COULD SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

THE AIRMASS IN PLACE EAST OF THE DRYLINE REMAINS VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE.  DAYTIME HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE THE
INSTABILITY TO INCREASE EVEN FURTHER. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
LIKELIHOOD THAT THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP COULD BECOME SEVERE.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...AND AN ITS ASSOCIATED AREA OF STRONGEST
WINDS ALOFT...WILL BE APPROACHING THE PANHANDLES FROM THE NORTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE OVERHEAD TONIGHT.  THESE FEATURES WILL
PROVIDE UPPER SUPPORT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

DUE TO THE DEPTH AND RICHNESS OF THE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALREADY
IN PLACE...COMBINED WITH THE STRONG INSTABILITY...THE MAIN SEVERE
WEATHER THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. VERY HEAVY
RAINS WILL ALSO BE A THREAT.

THE TURNING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT WILL BECOME STRONG ENOUGH DURING
THE EVENING TO MAKE THE ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND SPOTTER GROUPS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES SHOULD REMAIN ALERT THIS AFT`ERNOON...THIS EVENING...AND
TONIGHT...AND BE READY FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION.

COCKRELL