Severe Thunderstorm Warning 111, NWS Amarillo, TX

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
130 PM CDT MON JUN 12 2000

CONVECTION HAS ALREADY BROKEN OUT IN NORTHEAST NM AND THE NORTHWEST
TIP OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE CWA. THE MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS THAT THE AIR MASS OVER THE
REGION REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE WITH CAPES BETWEEN 2500 TO 3000 J/KG AND
PWS REMAINING OVER AN INCH. STRONG TO MARGINAL SEVERE TSTMS (SEE SPC
MCD 1034) WITH HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
FIRE ACROSS EASTERN NM AND WESTERN PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON AND
PROGRESS ACROSS CWA THIS EVENING...SIMILAR TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

MORE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH
THE SEVERE POTENTIAL THE HIGHEST IN THE EASTERN ZONES. THE AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN VERY UNSTABLE WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING IN THE 60S.
IN ADDITION...A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT IS PROGED TO MOVE
INTO PLAINS BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THESE TWO FEATURES WILL ONLY ADD TO THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.

IN THE EXTENDED...EXPECTING TO FINALLY DRY OUT A BIT WITH TEMPS
RISING TO AROUND 90. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE IN ON
SATURDAY FOR A CHANGE OF TSTMS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

.AMA...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

AMA 065/090 064/086 058 436
DHT 062/092 060/081 056 435

ND

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-122300-

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
100 PM CDT MON JUN 12 2000

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT A FEW OF THESE MAY BECOME SEVERE.

THE AIRMASS IN PLACE ABOVE THE PANHANDLES REMAINS VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE.  DAYTIME HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE THE
INSTABILITY TO INCREASE EVEN FURTHER. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS LOCATED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER
SOUTHEAST COLORADO.  A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS SOUTHEAST
INTO THE NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE.  ALSO...A DEVELOPING DRYLINE
EXTENDS SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW...THROUGH EASTERN NEW MEXICO.

EITHER OF THESE SURFACE BOUNDARIES MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. MOVEMENT OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST.

DUE TO THE DEPTH AND RICHNESS OF THE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALREADY
IN PLACE...COMBINED WITH THE STRONG INSTABILITY...THE MAIN SEVERE
WEATHER THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. VERY HEAVY
RAINS WILL ALSO BE A THREAT.

THE TURNING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO MAKE THE
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED TORNADO DEVELOPMENT.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND SPOTTER GROUPS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES SHOULD REMAIN ALERT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND BE
READY FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION.

COCKRELL