Severe Thunderstorm Warning 79, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
227 PM EDT FRI MAY 19 2000

SFC BDRY BEGINNING TO MAKE A MOVE AND CURRENTLY EXTDS FM EXTRM SRN
DE SWWD TO LKU AS OF 18Z. AS INDC IN EARLIER DISC...FTR HAS BEGUN TO
ADV SWD AS SHRTWV SWEEPS BY WELL TO THE N OVR PA/NY. NO INDC OF
PRE-FNTL SEABRZ AIDING IN THE PROPAGATION OF FNT. DESPITE STRENGTH
OF LO LVL WLY FLO...INFLUENCE OF SEABRZ INTERACTION IN FNTL
PROPAGATION REMAINS A FACTOR ALG IMMEDIATE CST AS DAYTIME HTG PUSHES
TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S TO 90 AND SETS UP SEABRZ CIRCULATION.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS CONT TO INDC CNVTN ALG AND TO THE N OF SFC
BDRY WI SOME OF THE CNVTN OF AN ELEVATED NATURE OVR WV...EXTRM NRN VA
AND THE DC METRO AREA.

COORDINATED WITH THE SPC FOR WATCH ISSUANCE. FOR NOW WATCH IS TO THE
W OF THE FA. WILL MONITOR SUBSEQUENT ISSUANCES. BACK DOOR FNT SLIDING
SWD ACROSS THE ERN SXNS OF THE FA MAY PRECLUDE WATCH ISSUANCE WI AN
INCREASINGLY STABLE BDRY LAYER.

NWP HAVING SOME DIFFERENCES WI REGARD TO THE EVENTUAL POSITIONING OF
THE FNTL SYS. NGM/ETA KEEP FNT DRAPED ACROSS E-CENTRL VA TO THE VA/NC
BORDER THRU THE NEXT 36 HRS WI AN ATTEMPT TO MOV FNT TO THE N BY 48
HRS.

THE AVN STANDS ALONE IN ITS DEPICTION OF A FNT WHICH DRIVES SWD TO
SRN N.C. BY 48HR. NWP MODELS TEND TO KEEP THESE BACK DOOR FNTS TOO
FAR N...SO AM LEANING TWD A COMPROMISE BTWN THE AVN AND NGM/ETA
SOLNS WHICH STILL KEEPS THE FNT LURKING CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
CHC POPS IN SRN SECTIONS OF THE FA THRU 48 HRS.

SHRTWV MOVING OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS PROMISES ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP LATE SUN INTO EARLY MON. PER PMDHMD...THE AVN SOLN OF THIS
FTR IS PREFERRED...HENCE PRECIP LOOKS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS
THE FA. THIS WOULD BE GOOD NEWS GIVEN RAINFALL DEFICITS OF 2 INCHES
FOR THE MONTH OF MAY ACROSS THE AREA IN THIS CRITICAL EARLY PART OF
THE GROWING SEASON.

EXTDD PD LOOKS TRANQUIL AS CONDS IMPROVE EARLY MON AND REMAIN BENIGN
THRU WED WI GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPS TO AVB SEASONAL LEVELS.

CWF...SFC WINDS ARE DIMINISHING THIS AFTN. CONSIDERING DROPPING ALL
SCA FOR TONIGHT...BUT MAY INCLUDE A REST OF THE AFTN SECTION IF SEAS
REMAIN CLOSE TO CRITERIA.

.AKQ...NONE ATTM.

COBB

MDZ021>025-NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ048-049-060>100-192000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1138 AM EDT FRI MAY 19 2000

...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN NECK
   OF VIRGINIA AND THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE...

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE NORTHERN NECK OF VIRGINIA AND THE EASTERN SHORE
OF VIRGINIA AND MARYLAND.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE WASHINGTON-
BALTIMORE AREA WESTWARD TO THE EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE
AT NOON WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH OF THIS AREA IS VERY UNSTABLE.
TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOWER 80S. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL
VIRGINIA AND THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
CONTAIN LARGE HAIL AND VERY STRONG WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHERN NECK OF VIRGINIA AND THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE.

SKYWARN SPOTTER NETWORKS MAY NEED TO BE ACTIVATED AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES.

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE WAKEFIELD INTERNET WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/ER/AKQ
(ALL LOWER CASE).

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND/OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

COBB

MDZ021>025-VAZ048-049-060>100-200000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
253 PM EDT FRI MAY 19 2000

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 316 IN EFFECT FOR EAST
   CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE
   UNTIL 800 PM EDT...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
FOR MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN
SHORE UNTIL 800 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES

IN MARYLAND...

DORCHESTER             SOMERSET
WICOMICO               WORCESTER

COUNTIES IN VIRGINIA...

ACCOMACKLE             AMELIA                BRUNSWICK
CAROLINE               CHARLES CITY          CHESTERFIELD
CUMBERLAND             DINWIDDIE             ESSEX
FLUVANNA               GLOUCESTER            GOOCHLAND
GREENSVILLE            HANOVER               HENRICO
ISLE OF WIGHT          JAMES CITY            KING AND QUEEN
KING WILLIAM           LANCASTER             LOUISA
LUNENBURG              MATHEWS               MECKLENBURG
MIDDLESEX              NEW KENT              NORTHAMPTON
NORTHUMBERLAND         NOTTOWAY              POWHATAN
PRINCE EDWARD          PRINCE GEORGE         RICHMOND
SOUTHAMPTON            SURRY                 SUSSEX
WESTMORELAND           YORK

INDEPENDENT CITIES IN VIRGINIA...

CHESAPEAKE            COLONIAL HEIGHTS       EMPORIA
FRANKLIN              HAMPTON                HOPEWELL
NEWPORT NEWS          NORFOLK                PETERSBURG
POQUOSON              PORTSMOUTH             RICHMOND
SUFFOLK               VIRGINIA BEACH         WILLIAMSBURG

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURING OVER THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT OF VIRGINIA AND EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD TO THE
WASHINGTON-BALTIMORE AREA. A FEW OF THESE STORMS HAVE BECOME SEVERE
IN THE PAST HOUR.

THE AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BECOME
VERY UNSTABLE. TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN WELL INTO THE 80S AND NEAR 90
IN A FEW LOCATIONS RESULTING IN AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
EAST-CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL AND VERY STRONG WINDS.

SKYWARN SPOTTER NETWORKS MAY NEED TO BE ACTIVATED AS THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING PROGRESSES.

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE WAKEFIELD INTERNET WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/ER/AKQ
(ALL LOWER CASE).

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND/OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

COBB