Severe Thunderstorm Warning 155, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
942 AM EDT MON JUN 19 2000

BATTLE BTWN SFC CDFNT AND STRNG RDG IN SW ATLC CONTG...EVENTUALLY
THE CDFNT WL WIN OUT...BUT AS SUSPECTED YDA...ITS GONNA BE SLOER
THAN MDLS HV INDCTD. SFC ANALYSIS PLCD FNT FM NR WAL TO EZF TO CHO
THEN W INTO CNTRL WV. XPCTG FNT TO CONT GRDL MVMNT S THIS AFTN...WHL
S/W FM ERN TN/KY MVS E. MSAS SHOWS SFC BASED LIS ALREADY BTWN -1 AND
-3 ACRS SRN VA/NE NC...AND WITH TEMPS RISING NEXT FEW HRS...THOSE
VALUES SHUD LWR FURTHER. RGNL RAOBS SHOWING NR SATURATION THRU DP
LYR...WITH FRZ LVLS/WET BULB ZEROS SIMILAR TO PAST CPL OF DAYS
(14500FT/13500FT). FARTHER W...BNA SHOWING DECENT DRYING BTWN 800
AND 450 MB (WITH WET BULB ZERO BTWN 9500-10000FT)...IF THAT WUD TO
MAKE IT INTO RGN (ESP XTRM SRN VA/NE NC)...WUD ENHANCE SVR
THREAT...BUT THAT AMS MOST LIKELY AIMED JUST S OF FA.

FOR FCST...AS FNT SLIPS THRU NRN/CNTRL AREAS (FM N TO S)...WL GO
WITH MR CLDS/LWR TEMPS...BUT KP CHC POPS. LUKS LIKE ANY SGFNT CLRG WL
HOLD OFF UNTIL TNGT. ACRS SRN 3RD OF FA...WL IMPRV SKY A TAD (VC OR
PSNY) AND RAISE TEMPS A CAT OR TWO. BEST CHCS FOR SGFNT TSRAS APRS
TO BE ALG-S OF AN ORF TO AKQ TO AVC LN. WL BE TUF TO GET ANY WDSPRD
SVR...BUT CERTAINLY PULSE TYPE (LIKE WE SAW LT SUN) CERTAINLY PSBL.

ZNS WIBIS AFT 14Z OBS.

.AKQ...NONE

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD,VA
140 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2000

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0105 PM    5 SE SCOTLAND             VA   .75 INCH HAIL
06/19/00   SURRY

TRA

VAZ094-095-097-098-191820-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
142 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2000

...CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE PENINSULA...

AT 138 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER RADAR DETECTED A CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE PENINSULA...AND EXTENDING ACROSS
THE JAMES RIVER INTO PARTS OF SURRY AND ISLE OF WIGHT COUNTIES.
THE THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING SOUTHEAST 25 MPH...AND ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE TO THE MOUTH OF THE JAMES RIVER BY 150 PM...THEN ONTO SECTIONS
OF PORTSMOUTH...NORFORK AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA BEACH...AND OVER THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN PART OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY BETWEEN 150 AND 220 PM.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY VERY HEAVY RAIN UP TO 1
INCH...DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS TO 30 TO 40
MPH...AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL.

WHEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING...MOVE INDOORS.  DO NOT STAND BY
WINDOWS.  UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY...AVOID USING @TELEPHONES AND
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION
STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION.

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