Severe Thunderstorm Warning 135, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
325 PM EDT THU JUN 15 2000

NO MAJOR PTN CHG SO HAVE TO GO WITH PERSISTENCE FCST. AIRMASS WL RMN
VERY MOIST AND UNSTBL NEXT FEW PDS.  THIS...COMBINED WITH DIURNAL
HEATING...& MINOR S/W DISTURBANCES WL BE ENUF TO TRIGGER CONVECTION
NEXT FEW AFTNS/EARLY EVENINGS.  ALOFT...UPR RDG OVR WRN ATLANTIC DOES SHIFT
WWD WHICH MAY REDUCE CONNECTIVE THREAT BUT FEEL THATS TOO OPTIMISTIC
ATOM. ETA/AVN BRINGS QUESTIONABLE SFC TROF/FNT SAT TO RGN WHICH I
THINK WL HOLD OFF TIL MON.  BASICALLY RAISED POPS IN MOST SPOTS
A BIT NEXT FEW PDS.  TEMPS AS PER GUIDANCE RIDING THE PERSISTENCE
ROUTE SO SEE LTL DEVIATION. WL ADD MENTION OF SVR TO WRN AND CNTRL
ZNS THIS EVENING AND LIKELY ISSUE SPS TO INFORM PUBLIC THREAT EXISTS.

.CWF...WNDS/WAVS INCREASED IN LATER PDS UNDER SW FLOW.

.AKQ...NONE.

SAS

NCZ012>014-VAZ048-049-060>074-079>083-087>090-092-093-096-160347-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD, VA
400 PM EDT THU JUN 15 2000

...THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA THIS EVENING...AS WELL AS AREAS OF NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA. WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE...ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY CAUSE FREQUENT HEAVY RAINFALL AND DEADLY
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. ALSO...THE THREAT OF WIND GUSTS GREATER
THAN 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO EXIST.  AT THIS TIME...THE BEST
LOCATIONS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG AND WEST
OF I95 THROUGH 9 PM. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES ARE CURRENTLY IN
EFFECT FOR THESE LOCATIONS...BUT THEY WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.

ANYONE PLANNING OUTDOOR EVENTS THIS EVENING NEEDS TO MAINTAIN A WATCH
ON WEATHER CONDITIONS.  STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR OTHER
MEDIA OUTLETS...FOR UPDATES ON ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

SCHUMANN