Severe Thunderstorm Warning 12, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
335 PM EST THU MAR 16 2000

...BIG CHANGES ON THE WAY. DON/T PUT AWAY THE WINTER COAT YET...

SRN STREAM S/W WILL CROSS THE AKQ FA TNT. MOISTURE AND LIFT FIELDS
AHD OF S/W FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE AND LARGE PCPN SHIELD POISED TO ENTER
THE AREA LATE THIS AFTN. SEEING SM HIGH REFLECTIVITY VALUES BUT
MAINLY CLOSE TO THE GROUND ATTM...INDICATIVE OF HVY RAINERS. WL KP
CAT POPS ALL AREAS TNT AND PUT IN HVY RAIN MENTION. SPC HAS PUT
CSTL NE NC IN SLT RISK AND WL KP TSTM MENTION IN TNT AS WELL.

COLD FRONT WON/T REACH FAR NW ZONES TIL AFT MIDNIGHT AND ONLY TO
CNTRL ZONES BY DAYBREAK. WON/T CLEAR FAR SE ZONES TIL NR MIDDAY FRI.
WL KP LOW CHC SHWRS EARLY FRI NW ZONES...THEN INDICATE SM PARTIAL
AFTN SUNSHINE. A BIT CONCERNED THAT IMPRESSIVE UPR VORT CROSSING
NE/MID ATLC STATES DURING AFTN MIGHT PROVIDE LIFT FOR PCPN...BUT
SHUD ONLY HV LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK ON...SO WL LV AFTN PCPN OUT
OVR NW AREAS. WL KP SM SHWRS SE ZONES THRU MUCH OF THE DAY AS
FRONTAL ZONE SLOW TO MV OFFSHORE. LL CAA BEGINS IN EARNEST FRI AFTN
INTO FRI EVE...TEMPS STEADY OR FALLING THRU FRI. WINDS WILL GET
CRANKING AND WITH TEMPS PLUMMETING INTO 30S OR LOWER FRI NIGHT...WL
FELL QUITE WINTERLIKE BY SAT MORN.

MID RANGE MDLS STILL SHOWING LTL CONSISTENCY FOR LATE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WL KP RAINY/WINDY/BREEZY CONDS MON AND CONT INTO
TUE AS SOME SORT OF CSTL SYS BECOMING INCREASING LIKELY. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN EXTNDD FCST.

CWF: SCA FLAGS CONT THIS PKG. WL APPROACH GALE CONDS FOR A WHILE FRI
AFTN/EVE.

.AKQ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CHES BAY SOUTH OF SMITH POINT...CURRITUCK
       SOUND AND ATLC CST FROM FENWICK ISL TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT.

CULLEN

NCZ015>017-030>032-102-162300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
105 PM EST THU MAR 16 2000

...A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...

INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL HELP SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW
OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AS THEY APPROACH NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 55 MPH...
LARGE HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. STAY TUNED TO
NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION STATIONS...OR
YOUR CABLE TELEVISION SERVICE PROVIDER FOR THE LATEST UPDATES
ON THIS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

CULLEN

VAZ092-093-162100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED FOR TYPO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
250 PM EST THU MAR 16 2000

...GUSTY WINDS WITH HEAVY RAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHAMPTON
AND ISLE OF WIGHT COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM...

A THUNDERSTORM...PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...AND RAINFALL
RATES OF ONE INCH PER HOUR...WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
SOUTHAMPTON COUNTY AND EASTERN ISLE OF WIGHT COUNTY THROUGH 4 PM.

THE CENTER OF THE CELL WILL BE NEAR...NEWSOMS AT 245 PM...BETWEEN
SEDLEY AND FRANKLIN NEAR 310 PM...WALTERS NEAR 325 PM...ISLE OF
WIGHT NEAR 345 PM...AND SMITHFIELD AROUND 355 PM.

IF CAUGHT IN THUS STORM WHILE DRIVING...PLEASE SLOW DOWN AS THE
HEAVY RAIN WILL SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES.