Flash Flood Warning 44, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD, VA
400 AM EDT TUE SEP 5 2000

DSCN:
WELCOME TO FALL...A FEW WEEKS EARLY. TRPLCL AIRMASS OF PAST 2
WEEKS TO BE REPLACED BY DRIER AND COLDER CANADIAN HIGH PRS.

IN SHORT TERM...FRNT STALLED OVR SERN VA/NE NC AS WK SFC LOW
DVLPNG DEPICTED BY IR SAT PICT. STILL SOME +RA IVOF ORF...
BUT THIS SHUD MOV SE NXT FEW HRS. THUS...HAVE CANCELLED FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WITH THIS PCKGE. MODELS INDCT PLNTY OF MSTR BEHIND
FRNT...WITH RADAR INDCTG SCT SHWRS AS FAR W AS CHO. THUS WILL
CONT CHC POPS THIS AM NRN HALF OF FA...CHC TO LIKELY POPS SRN
HALF OF FA. WILL ALSO KEEP CHC THUNDER SRN HALF.

BIGGEST CHANGE TDY WILL BE WIND AND TEMP. STRNG CAA EPCTD TDY AS
PRS GRAD INCRS NE WNDS INTO WNDY CAT. WILL GO WITH 20-30 MPH ERN
HALF OF FA...15-25 WRN HALF. TMPS TRICKY AS WELL. WITH PLNTY OF CLDS
ARND & NOT MUCH SUN...THNK CRNT VALUES MAY BE THE HIGH TMPS. THUS
WILL KEEP TMPS IN THE M-U60S TDY..WORD IT AS SLOWLY FALLING THERE
SERN AREAS. ANY PCPN SHUD END ACROSS SERN AREAS THIS EVE AS SYSTM
PUSHES FRTHR S...BUT WND WILL KEEP UP. THIS WILL PREVENT TMPS FROM
FALLING TO FAR...MAINLY IN THE 50S. TSCTSN SHWNG PLNTY OF MID/HIGH
LVL MSTR ARND WED. STRNG NE FLOW MAY EVEN BRING IN SOME SC. SOME
UNCERTAINITY ABT THIS SO WILL BE OPTIMISTIC AS WORD AS IT PT
SUNNY...THOUGH IT COULD END UP MSTLY CLDY SOME AREAS. HIGHS ARND 70.
WED NITE SHUD BE COOLEST WITH TMPS FALLING TO NR 50 W...M-U50S SE.
CUD EVEN SEE SOME U40S IF WNDS DMNSH & SKIES CLR.

SLOW WRMG TREND INTO XTNDD FCST.

CWF...TIDE HGHT CYCLE ON DOWNWARD TREND...BUT SOME MINOR FLOODING
PSBL IN USUAL PLACES. WILL HOIST GALES EVERYWHERE XCPT MIDDLE CHES
BAY WHERE STRNG SCA XPCTD.

FCSTID = 44
RIC   69  56  73  59 /  40  30  10  10
ORF   70  63  73  63 /  60  40  30  20
ECG   70  63  73  63 /  60  40  30  20
SBY   68  55  72  56 /  30  20  20  10
FVX   69  53  71  52 /  30  10  10  10
AKQ   69  56  73  59 /  40  30  10  10
PHF   70  63  73  63 /  60  40  30  20
OXB   68  55  72  56 /  30  20  20  10

.AKQ...
MD...GALE WRNG FROM FENWICK ISL TO CHINCOTEAGUE.
NC...GALE WRNG CURRITUCK SND & CSTL WTRS FROM VA/NC B&RDR TO
     CURRITUCK BEACH LGT.
VA...SCA SMITH PT TO NEW PT COMFORT. GALE WRNG NEW PT COMFORT
     TO CAPE HENRY. GALE WRNG CHINCOTEAGUE TO VA/NC BRDR.

MDZ021-022-024-025-NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ048-049-060>100-051000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD, VA
1045 PM EDT MON SEP 4 2000

...COOLER AND WINDY WEATHER ON TAP FOR TUESDAY...

THE FIRST AUTUMN LIKE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION OVERNIGHT AND SLOWLY REPLACE THE TROPICAL AIRMASS THAT HAS
GRIPPED THE REGION FOR MANY DAYS.  WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD...AND RAINFALL COULD STILL CAUSE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND LOW LYING AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING.

DUE TO THE VERY WET GROUND WHICH WEAKEN TREE ROOTS...GUSTY WINDS OF
20 TO 25 MPH...BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO DOWN
TREES ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...SUSTAINED NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS EARLY TUESDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. COASTAL LOCATIONS FROM OCEAN CITY
SOUTH TO VIRGINIA BEACH AND THE NORTHERN OUTERBANKS WILL EXPERIENCE
THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS BEHIND THE FRONT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND/OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LAqTER
STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

22

MDZ022>025-NCZ015>017-102-VAZ091-094>100-051600-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD, VA
420 AM EDT TUE SEP 5 2000

...STRONG...GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS TODAY. MEANWHILE...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...WILL BUILD EAST AND INTO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT...WILL CAUSE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO
AVERAGE 20 TO 30 MPH ON THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND 30 TO 35 MPH ON
THE ATLANTIC COAST FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT.
THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL BUILD WAVES TO BETWEEN 3 AND 6 FT ON THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO BUILD TO BETWEEN 8 AND 10
FT. MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS...ALONG WITH ROUGH WAVES AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

ADDITIONALLY...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ARE EXPECTED ALONG
THE SOUTHERN SHORES OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND 1.5 TO 2.5 FT FROM
VIRGINIA'S EASTERN SHORE TO THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS THIS EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS DURING
THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

MARINERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR THIS PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS.
OPERATORS OF SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS THE STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH WAVES AND SEAS WILL MAKE FOR
VERY HAZARDOUS BOATING. PERSONS PLANNING A TRIP TO THE ATLANTIC
BEACHES WILL NEED TO USE CAUTION IF VENTURING NEAR OR INTO THE
OCEAN...DUE TO INCREASED SURF AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RIP CURRENTS.

IT IS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TO FISH OR OBSERVE THE WAVES FROM EXPOSED
COASTAL STRUCTURES DURING HEAVY SURF CONDITIONS. LARGE WAVES CAN
SUDDENLY SWEEP ACROSS PREVIOUSLY DRY AREAS.

BOATING SAFETY BEGINS ON SHORE WITH ADVANCE PLANNING. BEFORE SETTING
OUT TO SEA...CHECK THE LATEST WEATHER FORECASTS...ADVISORIES...AND
WARNoINGS FOR YOUR BOATING AREA.