Severe Thunderstorm Warning 87, NWS Aberdeen, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
325 PM CDT SAT JUL 15 2000

FCST FOCUS ON TSTM/SVR WX CHCS TNGT. COOLER AND LESS HUMID
THEREAFTER.

SURFACE MAP SHWS CDFNT FM WRN ND TO NEB PNHDL WITH A 2 MB PRES RISE
BND FNT IN MT WHERE DWPTS ARE IN THE 30S AND 40S WITH GUSTY WNDS.
AHD OF FNT DPWTS SURGING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LIS
OF -6 TO -10 ACRS OUR CWA...AND CAPES OF 3000-5000 J/KG PER GOES SNDR.
PROBLEM RIGHT NOW IS VERY WARM MID LVL TMPS SUPRESSING THINGS. IN
FACT...KABR DOPPLER RADAR SHWG SCT SHWRS AHD OF FNT BUT THEY ARE
HAVING HARD TIME INCRG. HOWEVER...MDLS INDICATE AS UPR TROF SWINGS
EWD ACRS SRN CANADA MID LVL TMPS COOL ENUF TO BRK THE CAP THIS
EVENING. MESOETA SNDGS SUGGEST THREAT OF SUPERCELLS WITH A TORNADO
PSBL AS HELICITIES INCR TO OVR 200 M2/S2...BUT MAIN MODE OF SVR SHD
BE SCT-BKN LN OF TSTMS WITH DAMAGING WNDS/LRG HAIL. DAMAGING WNDS
THREAT INCRS TNGT DUE TO STRENGTHENING MID LVL WNDS TO 40 KTS. WILL
GO WITH 40-50 POPS IN ERN CWA AND LESS POPS WESTRIVER. FROPA XPCTD
BY 00Z MBG/PIR AREAS...05Z AT KABR AND 10Z MN COUNTIES.

STG CANADIAN HI BLDS INTO THE NRN PLNS BEGINNING SUNDAY WHICH SHD PUSH
FNT WELL S OF CWA. THIS WILL BRING IN COOLER AIR WITH DWPTS DROPPING
INTO THE 50S. IN FACT...H8 TMPS DIP TO AROUND 10C ON MONDAY IN NRN
SD WHICH TRANSLATES TO MAX TMPS IN THE 70S. QUITE A CHG FM THE PAST
CPL OF WKS ARND HERE.

...EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION IS OVERRUN BY CANADIAN LOW EARLY IN
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  IT REBUILDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE AXIS
FARTHER WEST.  THERE WILL BE SEVERAL WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER
FLOW THAT WILL INFLUENCE THIS PERIOD.  THE STRONGEST WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  AT THE SURFACE TUESDAY WILL SEE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WITH AN INTENSIFYING LOW
MOVING UNDER THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
WILL MODIFY MRF ACCORDING TO MAN PROGS AND PLACE THE LOW CLOSE TO
THIS AREA BY LATE TUESDAY AND MOVING ACROSS WEDNESDAY.  WILL MENTION
PRECIPITATION IN THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND HOLD OFF
UNTIL WEDNESDAY FOR THE EAST.  TEMPERATURES WILL START THE EXTENDED
PERIOD COOLER THAN CURRENT BUT WILL WARM AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY ALTHOUGH NOT TO CURRENT VALUES.

.ABR...NONE.
JH/KEEFE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN, SD
724 PM CDT SAT JUL 15 2000

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....
x
0610 PM    6 NW DRAPER               SD   1.75 INCH HAIL
07/15/00   JONES                          COVERED THE GROUND

PARKIN

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