Severe Thunderstorm Warning 83, NWS Aberdeen, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
435 PM CDT TUE JUL 11 2000

VERY SHORT DISCUSSION.  LINE OF SVR STORMS CONTINUE TO PROPOGATE
EAST AND HAVE CANCELLED WATCH BEHIND LINE. STILL FAIR THREAT OF
WINDS AND HAIL OVER FAR EASTERN CWA INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND SFC HIGH BUILD IN FOR DECENT DAY ON WEDNESDAY
ALTHO TAD WARM. WEDENSDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BRINGS ANOTHER WEAK
RIDGE RIDING S/W AND WEAK SFC FRONT SETS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN SD. DONT
HAVE A GOOD FEEL FOR THIS FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED PCPN CHC BUT DID
THROW OUT A 20 PERCENTER TO COVER FOR THU AFTERNOON. MOS TEMPS WAS
ACCEPTED FOR THIS FORECAST. CHANCE OF PCPN NOW LOOK BETTER IN THE
EXTENDED AS MRF HAS BACK WAY OFF ON PROGGED MID LEVEL
WARMTH...FIGURES!

TDK

...EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
MRF CONTINUES TO SHOW 500MB RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
UNITED STATES DURING THE PERIOD WITH SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THE TOP
OF THE RIDGE. ONLY HAD TIME THIS AFTERNOON TO BASE FORECAST ON THE
MRF. WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE THURSDAY AND
THEN WILL CONTINUE THEM INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER...WILL
FOLLOW MRF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH AND
EAST.

RE

.ABR...NONE.

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE  ABERDEEN SD
1110 AM CDT TUE JUL 11 2000

.AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA
TODAY...MOVING INTO MINNESOTA THIS EVENING. SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF
THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR INTO EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS SECTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SOME
OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...STRONG WINDS AND VERY
HEAVY RAIN. THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST INTO MINNESOTA
BY MIDNIGHT.

SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017-121600-
CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-EDMUNDS-FAULK-MCPHERSON-POTTER-WALWORTH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF EUREKA...FAULKTON...GETTYSBURG...MCINTOSH...
MOBRIDGE...MOUND CITY...ROSCOE...TIMBER LAKE

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NONE ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

SDZ033>037-045-048-051-121600-
BUFFALO-HAND-HUGHES-HYDE-JONES-LYMAN-STANLEY-SULLY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF FT PIERRE...FT THOMPSON...HIGHMORE...MILLER...
MURDO...ONIDA...PIERRE...PRESHO

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME
POSSIBLY SEVERE. BY 8 PM THIS EVENING...THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE OVER.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED AFTER 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

SDZ006-007-011-018-019-121600-
BROWN-CLARK-DAY-MARSHALL-SPINK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF ABERDEEN...BRITTON...CLARK...REDFIELD...
WEBSTER

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME
POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE. BY 9 PM THIS EVENING...THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DONE.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED AFTER 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

SDZ008-020>023-MNZ039-046-121600-
BIG STONE MN-CODINGTON-DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-ROBERTS-TRAVERSE MN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF CASTLEWOOD...CLEAR LAKE...MILBANK...
ORTONVILLE...SISSETON...WATERTOWN...WHEATON

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME
POSSIBLY SEVERE. BY 10 PM THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE EAST OF
THE AREA.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED AFTER 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

ZHINTZ

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