Severe Thunderstorm Warning 86, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
300 PM MDT WED AUG 9 2000

CONVECTION LINED UP ALONG SFC WIND SHIFT LINE IN NERN CRNR DRIFTING
A LITTLE SWD. DIURNAL CONVECTION DRIFTING OFF MTNS MASKING SATELLITE
IDENTIFICATION OF INVERTED TROUGH BUT EARLY DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION OVER NORTH AND WEST TODAY WITH LESS CLOUDINESS SOUTHEAST
ARGUES IN FAVOR OF NGM/ETA PROGNOSIS OF NORTHWARD DRIFT OF SHEAR
AXIS. WILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN PERSISTENCE AND FWC GUIDANCE
INDICATING COOLER TEMPS AND HIGHER POPS CENTRAL AND NORTH THRU
FRIDAY WITH STATUS QUO(LOW POPS) FOR EASTCENTRAL AND SE. DESPITE THE
LACK OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
WEEKS ...ENOUGH MOISTURE HAS SEEPED IN TO BRING PRECIPITABLE WATER
TO ABOVE AVERAGE OVER ALL BUT NORTHWEST CORNER. THUS SLIGHT
DESTABILIZATION SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHER POPS. 10-15 KT WWD TO SWWD
MOVEMENT ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANYTHING MORE THAN SPOTTY...SHORT LIVED
DOWNPOURS...BEST HANDLED BY NOWS. EXTENDED GUID SHOWS SHEAR AXIS
BECOMING LESS DEFINED WITH UPPER HIGH CENTER TO NORTH OF NM
RESULTING IN E TO W STEERING FLOW AND BETTER POPS CENTRAL MTNS WWD
THAN OVER EASTERN PLAINS. TEMPS LIKELY LITTLE COOLER THAN PRESENT
BUT STILL NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL. MJF

ABQ BB 066/090 066/090 066 32222
SAF BB 058/088 058/087 058 32333
TCC BB 067/092 067/092 067 32222

.ABQ...NONE.

NMZ005-006-009>013-100329-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
825 PM MDT WED AUG 9 2000

...SQUALL LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG INTERSTATE 40 EAST OF
ALBUQUERQUE...

A RARE SQUALL LINE OR BAND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER
EASTERN CENTRAL NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS EVENING AND MOVED SOUTH OVER
THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR FROM CLINES CORNERS TO SANTA ROSA
AND TUCUMCARI. AT 825 PM MDT THE LINE WAS STILL VERY ACTIVE
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...HAIL OF 1/2 INCH AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS OVER EASTERN TORRANCE AND CENTRAL GUADALUPE COUNTIES.

THE LINE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AS IT FINALLY PASSES FULLY SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE. IT WILL LIKELY INTERSECT OTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
EARLIER STORMS TO PRODUCE ANOTHER SET OF STRONG STORMS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVIER RAINS OVER EASTERN TORRANCE AND WESTERN GUADALUPE COUNTIES
BETWEEN 830 PM AND 10PM. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY EXTEND EAST
TOWARDS CURRY AND DE BACA COUNTIES SO LATE NIGHT THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR CLOVIS...FORT SUMNER AND PERHAPS PORTALES.

SEVERAL STORMS AT THE WEST END OF THE LINE WILL REACH INTO WESTERN
TORRANCE COUNTY BRING STRONG EAST AND NORTHEAST WINDS TO MORIARTY...
ESTANCIA AND THE EAST MOUNTAINS COMMUNITIES. GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY
IN TIJERAS CANYON INTO EASTERN ALBUQUERQUE FROM ABOUT 9PM THROUGH
MIDNIGHT.

KH