Severe Thunderstorm Warning 62, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
327 PM MDT MON JUL 17 2000

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH BUILDING 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 850-500 MB THICKNESS
VALUES ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE...SUGGESTING A WARMING TREND WITH LOWER
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. THE PRESENCE OF RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WOULD SUGGEST AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT RIDGING WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FEATURE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE ETA AND AVN ARE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
THICKNESS INCREASE. IT APPEARS THAT A COMPROMISE BETWEEN NGM AND
ETA/AVN WOULD BE THE REASONABLE SOLUTION. ALSO...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
MENTION THAT MRF BUILDS A MASSIVE RIDGE WEST OF NM...SUGGESTING
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. WEIGHING THE IDEA THAT THE
RIDGE WILL NOT BE AS STRONG OR WELL DEFINED...AND THE FACT THAT
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE...AND HEATING WILL BE
EFFECTIVE...SO WILL CONTINUE TREND OF PARTLY CLOUDY SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. KMV

ABQ BB 064/095 064/095 06.4 33222
SAF BB 059/089 057/090 059 33322
TCC BB 068/098 069/098 068 33211

.ABQ...NONE.

NMZ001>021-026-172200-

NORTH AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1130 AM MDT MON JUL 17 2000

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST RIO ARRIBA COUNTY...ACROSS MOST OF TAOS AND
COLFAX COUNTIES...AND INTO NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN UNION COUNTY. THE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

BURNED AREA RAIN OUTLOOK...POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOOD PRODUCING RAIN
IN THE AREA...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
...LINCOLN COUNTY...MODERATE
...LOS ALAMOS COUNTY...MODERATE
...SAN MIGUEL COUNTY...MODERATE

NOTE...IN BURNED AREAS...EVEN SMALL AMOUNTS OF RAIN IN A SHORT TIME
PERIOD COULD CAUSE MAJOR PROBLEMS...

SYNOPSIS...AIRMASS OVER THE AREA REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
SOUTHERN COLORADO. DAYTIME HEATING WILL INITIATE SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH WEAK WIND SHIFT
LINE EASTCENTRAL PLAINS TO EAST SLOPES OF NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ALSO
SERVING AS A FOCUS. ABOVE AVERAGE NUMBER OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SLOW MOVEMENT RESULTING IN
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION...MAY BE REQUIRED FROM 3PM TO 8 PM IN AN AREA
MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM CHAMA TO TAOS...TO LAKE MALOYA.

COUNTIES WHERE SKYWARN SPOTTERS MAY BE REQUIRED...
...EASTERN NEW MEXICO...
UNION   COLFAX

...CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...
NONE

...WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO...
TAOS

THIS OUTLOOK PRODUCT IS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES TO IDENTIFY POTENTIAL
WEATHER HAZARDS. IT IS NOT INTENDED TO REPLACE SPECIFIC STATEMENTS
OR WARNINGS RELATED TO FLASH FLOODS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.
FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO USE PRODUCT WWUS84 KMAF.
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO USE PRODUCT WWUS35 KEPZ.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE, NM
139 PM MDT MON JUL 17 2000

TIME(MDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0130 PM    MORA                      NM   .88 INCH HAIL
07/17/00   MORA                           Dime to Nickel sized hail
                                          covered the ground.

KMV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE, NM
313 PM MDT MON JUL 17 2000

TIME(MDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0310 PM    RATON                     NM   1.00 INCH HAIL
07/17/00   COLFAX                         1.00 - 1.25 INCH HAIL
                                          REPORT BY PUBLIC IN RATON

KMV|

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE, NM
323 PM MDT MON JUL 17 2000

TIME(MDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0315 PM    SPRINGER                  NM   1.00 INCH HAIL
07/17/00   COLFAX                         0.88-1.00 INCH HAIL
                                          REPORTED BY PD IN
                                          SPRINGER

KMV