Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
310 AM MDT THU MAY 25 2000

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED THROUGH ALL OF OUR EASTERN PLAINS
(AND STILL SAGGING SOUTHWARD)...WITH WEAK EASTERLIES THROUGH THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN PASSES. RESULT HAS BEEN IMPORT OF HIGHER DEW POINTS
AND DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH BASED SHOWERS WITHIN CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. EAST WINDS HERE SHOULD DIE SHORTLY.

THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN BAJA WILL BECOME MAIN PLAYER AS IT
EVOLVES INTO AN OPEN-WAVE AND PASSES OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA
TODAY...AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF
SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS AND AFTERNOON MIXING WILL CAUSE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO LIFT/ERODE BACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND BECOME RATHER
DIFFUSE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN POOLED
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITHIN E-SELY SURFCE GRADIENT.  WINDS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST...ROSWELL VICINITY...SHOULD TURN BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON.

NERN ZONES WILL BE UNDER LEFT EXIT REGION OF 90 KNOT JET MAX. THE
STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIORNMENT WILL FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW SUPERCELLS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
EASTCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST. WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF SEVERE PER
LASTEST SPC DAY ONE OUTLOOK. ALTHOUGH THE CAP WILL BE MUCH WEAKER
THAN RECENT DAYS...IT MAY STILL HOLD ACROSS OUR SE PLAINS.  ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS...ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS STILL A GOOD BET WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
GUSTY WINDS AND DRY LIGHTNING OF MAJOR CONCERN.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FINALLY TAKING A DOWN TURN...AND WILL SHAVE ABOUT
5-10 DEGREES OFF THOSE OBSERVED WEDNESDAY FOR MOST AREAS. STILL..A
FEW RECORDS MAY FALL HERE AND THERE. BREEZY MOST AREAS TOO.

A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OF SORT MAY ROLL ACROSS THE NE/ECNTL PLAINS TONIGHT
WITH EVENING CONVECTION SLOWY DYING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WEST.
MAYBE A LINGERING SHOWER UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT CENTRAL SECTIONS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE ACROSS CHAVES COUNTY.

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE STATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH NWLY FLOW FOLLOWING. A SHORT WAVE OR TWO MAY AFFECT
THE NCNTL AND NE...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF PRECIP THESE AREAS ON FRI.
OTHERWISE...MAIN WX WILL BE STRONGER WINDS AS GRADIENTS SURFACE AND
ALOFT TIGHTEN. WINDY MOST AREAS.

NWLY FLOW LINGERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY...BEFORE THE
MONSTER RIDGE RETURNS SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY. BACK TO MORE
RECORD HEAT.

ABQ BN 090/058 087/055 092 41110
SAF BN 085/049 082/045 087 41221
TCC EB 088/061 093/058 096 41242

.ABQ...NONE

KJ