Severe Thunderstorm Warning 88, NWS Tucson, AZ

SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
240 PM MST TUE AUG 31 1999

SYNOPSIS...A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL COMBINE
WITH THE DEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL DROP INTO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON
FRIDAY. THIS WILL BEGIN A GRADUAL DRYING TREND THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE UPCOMING LABOR DAY HOLIDAY.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE SCATTERED ON WEDNESDAY DECREASING TO
ISOLATED BY FRIDAY AND GENERALLY BE OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS.

DISCUSSION...HAS BEEN AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON SO FAR ACROSS SOUTHERN
ARIZONA WITH DEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE (PW VALUES 1.5 TO 2 INCHES) IN
PLACE OVER MUCH THE AREA THIS MORNING. 12Z TUCSON SOUNDING WAS VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH PW VALUE JUST OVER 1.5 INCHES...MEAN LAYER
CAPE AROUND 1250 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX OF -6. LATEST GOES-10 DERIVED
PRODUCTS SHOW THE ABOVE VALUES STILL EXIST FROM TUCSON WEST. 12Z 300
MB PLOT SHOW WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER SW ARIZONA WHICH IS MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARIZONA TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE LIKELY KICKING OFF BIG STORM
IN PHOENIX AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR STILL SHOWING AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE AROUND 100 MILES SOUTHEAST NOGALES MOVING SLOWLY NE.
WILL KEEP HIGH SCATTERED TO LIKELY POPS FROM TUCSON EAST WITH ONLY
ISOLATED OUT WEST SINCE THEY HAVE BEEN SLOW TO START AND MAY BE
UNDER SOME NVA WITH PASSAGE OF AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE.

NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS NOT CUT AND DRY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE
PACIFIC NW DIGS INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND PUTTING MOST OF ARIZONA
UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. PW VALUES SLOWLY DECREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST AND SHOULD LIMIT ACTIVITY TO THE SCATTERED RANGE ON THURSDAY AND
ISOLATED ON FRIDAY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH IMPULSES FROM THE SOUTH THAT
MAY ADD FUEL TO THE FIRE ON WEDNESDAY. EXTENDED HAS ABOVE MENTIONED
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN ON FRIDAY AND PUSHING THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE SOUTH AND LIMITING ACTIVITY TO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THIS IS
THE FIRST NAIL IN THE MONSOON COFFIN. GLUECK

.TWC...NONE.

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