Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 1999
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 7, NWS Tucson, AZ
NWS Tucson, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jun 28, 1999, 1:51 PM MST for Cochise County, Arizona. It was in force for 44 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 28, 1999, 1:51 PM MST (20:51 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 28, 1999, 2:35 PM MST
- In force
- 44 min
- Issued by
- NWS Tucson, AZ
- Area
- Whole counties
County Cochise County, AZ
The radar
The Tucson radar (KEMX), 83 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:51 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Tuscon, AZ (KTUS), launched 12:00Z, 8.9 hours before the alert went out and 113 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 84 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -319 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2114 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 4 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 41 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 48 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
944 WUUS1 KTUS 282048 RRA SVRTUS AZC003-282135- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 151 PM MST MON JUN 28 1999 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TUCSON HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN COCHISE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA INCLUDING SIERRA VISTA...NICKSVILLE...AND HEREFORD * UNTIL 235 PM MST * AT 145 PM MST... DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES SOUTH OF SIERRA VISTA... MOVING NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... SIERRA VISTA BY 223 PM MST THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TUCSON HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN COCHISE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA INCLUDING SIERRA VISTA...NICKSVILLE...AND HEREFORD UNTIL 235 PM MST. AT 145 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES SOUTH OF SIERRA VISTA MOVING NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH. BRYANT
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jun 28, 9:30 AM MST, 4 hours 21 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jun 28, 9:30 AM MST, 4 hours 21 minutes before
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 930 AM MST MON JUN 28 1999 SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE FROM NORTHERN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH TONIGHT. A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW WILL THEN BEGIN TO PUSH MONSOONAL MOISTURE BACK INTO NORTHERN MEXICO ON TUESDAY...WITH THE BEST THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO NEAR THE MEXICAN BORDER DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES...AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STRENGTHENS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. DISCUSSION...MORE MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST AZ THAN LAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS WITH SFC DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. IN ADDITION...GOES TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1 INCH FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER CWA WITH VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES ALONG THE MEXICAN BORDER FROM NOGALES EAST TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. THESE VALUES CORRESPOND WELL WITH THE TUS MORNING SOUNDING WHICH HAS A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.38 INCHES. VISIBLE SAT PICS SHOW AREA IS NEARLY CLEAR OF CLOUDS...THE EXCEPTION BEING FAR SE COCHISE COUNTY WHERE A FEW CLOUDS ARE STILL HANGING ON FROM OUTFLOW OF CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THUS...GOOD SOLAR HEATING WILL BE ON TAP INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BOTH AVN/ETA SHOW THETA-E RIDGE NOSING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE AVN VALUES A TAD STRONGER AND DISPLACED FURTHER NORTH AND WEST THAN THE ETA. WITH GOOD SOLAR HEATING AND DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE...WILL SEE ACTION START OFF OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN AS THE DAY WEARS ON...THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND CAPE TO KEEP THE STORMS GOING OVER THE VALLEYS. BEST ACTION WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF AN AREA BOUNDED BY NOGALES...TUCSON AND SAFFORD...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED CONVECTION OUTSIDE THIS AREA IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. ONE LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW STARTING TO SET UP ACROSS THE AREA...HOWEVER THIS FLOW IS FAIRLY WEAK UNTIL LATER TONIGHT WHEN MORE SIGNIFICANT DRYING IS TO TAKE PLACE. CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD...ALTHOUGH I AM CONSIDERING BUMPING UP POPS A BIT FOR EASTERN PIMA/GRAHAM COUNTIES LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AND SEE WHERE CONVECTION STARTS FIRING. ZELL .TWC...NONE.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jun 28, 12:45 PM MST, 1 hour 6 minutes before
PHXSPSTUS
AZZ019-029>035-290500-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1245 PM MST MON JUN 28 1999...THIS PRODUCT IS NOT UPDATED
*CONDITIONAL* *CONDITIONAL*
COUNTY AREAL PROBABILITY RAIN GREATER THAN STORM
COVERAGE OF SEVERE 1.00 2.00 MOTION
COCHISE 30 5 30 5 NNE 5
GRAHAM 15 0 10 0 NE 5
GREENLEE 15 0 5 0 NE 5
TUCSON/ERN PIMA 20 0 20 0 NE 5
TOHONO O'ODHAM 0 0 0 0
SOUTHEAST PINAL 0 0 0 0
WESTERN PIMA 0 0 0 0
SANTA CRUZ 30 5 30 10 NE 5
SYNOPSIS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN
COCHISE COUNTY...THEN BY MID-AFTERNOON IN SANTA CRUZ...PIMA...
AND SOUTHERN GRAHAM COUNTY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS
PRODUCING PRECIPITATION IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH. THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
IS VERY SLIGHT.
*****************************************************************
KEY...
AREAL COVERAGE - PERCENT OF COUNTY OR AREA THAT WILL EXPERIENCE
THUNDERSTORMS
PROB OF SEVERE - THE PROBABILITY THAT AN INDIVIDUAL STORM WILL
REACH SEVERE LEVELS (DAMAGING WIND AND/OR
LARGE HAIL)
RAIN GRTR THAN - THE PROBABILITY THAT AN INDIVIDUAL STORM WILL
PRODUCE RAIN EXCEEDING 1 INCH OR 2 INCHES IN
ANY LOCATION
STORM MOTION - GENERAL DIRECTION TO WHICH THE STORMS WILL
LIKELY MOVE AND SPEED IN MPH
NOTE...
VALID TIME IS FROM 12:45 PM TO 12 MIDNIGHT OF THE DAY OF ISSUANCE.
THIS PRODUCT IS NOT TO BE USED IN PLACE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS OR WATCHES. THIS PRODUCT IS ONLY USED FOR
OUTLOOK PURPOSES. CORRESPONDING GRAPHICS MAY BE FOUND ON THE NWS
TUCSON INTERNET PAGE AT
HTTP://NIMBO.WRH.NOAA.GOV/TUCSON/SWO/SWO.SHTML
END/Special weather statement, Jun 28, 12:45 PM MST, 1 hour 6 minutes before
PHXSPSTUS
AZZ019-029>035-290500-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1245 PM MST MON JUN 28 1999...THIS PRODUCT IS NOT UPDATED
*CONDITIONAL* *CONDITIONAL*
COUNTY AREAL PROBABILITY RAIN GREATER THAN STORM
COVERAGE OF SEVERE 1.00 2.00 MOTION
COCHISE 30 5 30 5 NNE 5
GRAHAM 15 0 10 0 NE 5
GREENLEE 15 0 5 0 NE 5
TUCSON/ERN PIMA 20 0 20 0 NE 5
TOHONO O'ODHAM 0 0 0 0
SOUTHEAST PINAL 0 0 0 0
WESTERN PIMA 0 0 0 0
SANTA CRUZ 30 5 30 10 NE 5
SYNOPSIS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN
COCHISE COUNTY...THEN BY MID-AFTERNOON IN SANTA CRUZ...PIMA...
AND SOUTHERN GRAHAM COUNTY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS
PRODUCING PRECIPITATION IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH. THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
IS VERY SLIGHT.
*****************************************************************
KEY...
AREAL COVERAGE - PERCENT OF COUNTY OR AREA THAT WILL EXPERIENCE
THUNDERSTORMS
PROB OF SEVERE - THE PROBABILITY THAT AN INDIVIDUAL STORM WILL
REACH SEVERE LEVELS (DAMAGING WIND AND/OR
LARGE HAIL)
RAIN GRTR THAN - THE PROBABILITY THAT AN INDIVIDUAL STORM WILL
PRODUCE RAIN EXCEEDING 1 INCH OR 2 INCHES IN
ANY LOCATION
STORM MOTION - GENERAL DIRECTION TO WHICH THE STORMS WILL
LIKELY MOVE AND SPEED IN MPH
NOTE...
VALID TIME IS FROM 12:45 PM TO 12 MIDNIGHT OF THE DAY OF ISSUANCE.
THIS PRODUCT IS NOT TO BE USED IN PLACE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS OR WATCHES. THIS PRODUCT IS ONLY USED FOR
OUTLOOK PURPOSES. CORRESPONDING GRAPHICS MAY BE FOUND ON THE NWS
TUCSON INTERNET PAGE AT
HTTP://NIMBO.WRH.NOAA.GOV/TUCSON/SWO/SWO.SHTML
END/The office that day
Everything else NWS Tucson, AZ issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 27, 5:35 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TWC | Pima | 45 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 1999Every severe thunderstorm warning in 1999
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.