Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 1999
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS Tucson, AZ
NWS Tucson, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jun 15, 1999, 5:29 PM MST for Cochise County, Arizona. It was in force for 31 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 15, 1999, 5:29 PM MST (00:29 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 15, 1999, 6:00 PM MST
- In force
- 31 min
- Issued by
- NWS Tucson, AZ
- Area
- Whole counties
County Cochise County, AZ
The radar
The Tucson radar (KEMX), 83 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:30 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Tuscon, AZ (KTUS), launched 00:00Z, 0.5 hours before the alert went out and 113 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 37 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -7 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 4221 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 7 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -21 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- -3 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
893 WUUS1 KTUS 160028 RRA SVRTUS AZC003-160100- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 529 PM MST TUE JUN 15 1999 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TUCSON HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... WEST CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA INCLUDING BENSON * UNTIL 600 PM MST * AT 527 PM MST... DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF BENSON... MOVING WEST AT 15 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... BENSON BY 535 PM MST EXPECT DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. WJM
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jun 15, 2:10 PM MST, 3 hours 19 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jun 15, 2:10 PM MST, 3 hours 19 minutes before
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 210 PM MST TUE JUN 15 1999 SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER ARIZONA WILL DRIFT INTO NEW MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST...THE MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND BEGIN TO TAP PRE-MONSOON MOISTURE OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. UNTIL THE FLOW TURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND... THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS... ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. DISCUSSION...THE STRONGEST STORMS HAVE REMAINED CONFINED TO THE RIM SO FAR ALTHOUGH CELLS ARE GETTING UNDERWAY ON THE SKY ISLANDS WITH SOME VIRGA OVER THE MOUNTAINS N AND E OF KTUS. DESERT TEMPS ARE GETTING HOT ENOUGH FROM SOMETHING TO DRIFT OFF THE MOUNTAINS SO EXPECT PEAK ACTIVITY FROM 300-600PM. 19Z GOES SOUNDING FOR TUS SHOWS CLOUD BASES ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL WITH INVERTED-VS BELOW AND CAPES ABOUT 500J/KG ABOVE: A CLASSIC MICROBURST SOUNDING. THUS WELL KEEP HEIGHTENED WORDING IN ZONES EVEN THOUGH PRECIP COVERAGE MAY BE A LITTLE LESS THAN WHAT WE HAVE GOING NOW. TO KEEP THE WORDINESS DOWN, WELL ALSO SPLIT OFF AN EVENING FORECAST PERIOD. AS RIDGE SHIFTS EAST, UPPER FLOW TURNS FIRST TO THE SE AND THEN THE S. MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS LIFTING NORTH ACROSS NW MEXICO WED NIGHT AND INTO FAR SE AZ THU. SINCE WELL BE IN THE SAME SITUATION TOMORROW AS TODAY (DECENT INSTABILITY/ PRECIP WATERS AROUND 0.75, BUT NO CLEAR TRIGGER), WELL KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE AND KEEP THE ACTIVITY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. SOME WORKOVER FROM TODAYS CONVECTION AND PASSAGE OF THERMAL RIDGE ALOFT MAY ALSO SUPPRESS DEVELOPMENT. WELL RAISE POPS 10-20 PERCENT THU WITH THE APPROACH OF THE WAVE AND THE 1 PRECIP WATERS ATTENDING IT. IF WE GET ANYTHING OTHER THAN SPRINKLES IN THE VALLEYS ITLL BE THURSDAY. OUR MONSOON TEASER WILL FINALLY SHUT OFF BY THE WEEKEND AS A SHORT WAVE PASSES TO OUR NW AND SWINGS OUR UPPER FLOW TO A DRIER DIRECTION. LOOKS LIKE THE HOT WEATHER IS HERE TO STAY, THOUGH, WITH THICKNESSES SUPPORTING CENTURY HIGHS FROM TUCSON WEST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PYTLAK. .TWC...NONE.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jun 15, 11:45 AM MST, 5 hours 44 minutes before
AZZ019-026>030-172300-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1145 AM MST TUE JUN 15 1999...THIS PRODUCT IS NOT UPDATED
...LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...
*CONDITIONAL* *CONDITIONAL*
COUNTY AREAL PROBABILITY RAIN GREATER THAN STORM
COVERAGE OF SEVERE 1.00 2.00 MOTION
COCHISE 20 65 5 0
GRAHAM 35 55 5 0
GREENLEE 50 10 5 0
TUCSON/ERN PIMA 15 40 0 0
TOHONO OODHAM 0 0 0 0
SOUTHEAST PINAL 15 40 0 0
WESTERN PIMA 0 0 0 0
SANTA CRUZ 20 55 0 0
SYNOPSIS...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS HAS MOVED OVER SOUTHERN
ARIZONA. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND PROPAGATE INTO
THE LOWER DESERTS EAST OF A SASABE TO PICACHO LINE. SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED EXCEPT IN VERY LOCALIZED AREAS...BUT STRONG
AND PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY THE STORMS. AREAS OF
THICK BLOWING DUST COULD ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STORMS.
*****************************************************************
KEY...
AREAL COVERAGE - PERCENT OF COUNTY OR AREA THAT WILL EXPERIENCE
THUNDERSTORMS
PROB OF SEVERE - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
REACH SEVERE LEVELS (DAMAGING WIND AND/OR
LARGE HAIL)
RAIN GRTR THAN - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
PRODUCE RAIN EXCEEDING 1 INCH OR 2 INCHES IN
ANY LOCATION
STORM MOTION - GENERAL DIRECTION TO WHICH THE STORMS WILL
LIKELY MOVE AND SPEED IN MPH
NOTE...
VALID TIME IS FROM 12:45 PM TO 12 MIDNIGHT OF THE DAY OF ISSUANCE.
THIS PRODUCT IS NOT TO BE USED IN PLACE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS OR WATCHES. THIS PRODUCT IS ONLY USED FOR
OUTLOOK PURPOSES. GRAPHICS FOR THIS PRODUCT WILL BE AVAILABLE BY
JULY 1 1999.
END/PYTLAK/DRBSpecial weather statement, Jun 15, 11:45 AM MST, 5 hours 44 minutes before
AZZ019-026>030-172300-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1145 AM MST TUE JUN 15 1999...THIS PRODUCT IS NOT UPDATED
...LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...
*CONDITIONAL* *CONDITIONAL*
COUNTY AREAL PROBABILITY RAIN GREATER THAN STORM
COVERAGE OF SEVERE 1.00 2.00 MOTION
COCHISE 20 65 5 0
GRAHAM 35 55 5 0
GREENLEE 50 10 5 0
TUCSON/ERN PIMA 15 40 0 0
TOHONO OODHAM 0 0 0 0
SOUTHEAST PINAL 15 40 0 0
WESTERN PIMA 0 0 0 0
SANTA CRUZ 20 55 0 0
SYNOPSIS...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS HAS MOVED OVER SOUTHERN
ARIZONA. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND PROPAGATE INTO
THE LOWER DESERTS EAST OF A SASABE TO PICACHO LINE. SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED EXCEPT IN VERY LOCALIZED AREAS...BUT STRONG
AND PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY THE STORMS. AREAS OF
THICK BLOWING DUST COULD ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STORMS.
*****************************************************************
KEY...
AREAL COVERAGE - PERCENT OF COUNTY OR AREA THAT WILL EXPERIENCE
THUNDERSTORMS
PROB OF SEVERE - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
REACH SEVERE LEVELS (DAMAGING WIND AND/OR
LARGE HAIL)
RAIN GRTR THAN - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
PRODUCE RAIN EXCEEDING 1 INCH OR 2 INCHES IN
ANY LOCATION
STORM MOTION - GENERAL DIRECTION TO WHICH THE STORMS WILL
LIKELY MOVE AND SPEED IN MPH
NOTE...
VALID TIME IS FROM 12:45 PM TO 12 MIDNIGHT OF THE DAY OF ISSUANCE.
THIS PRODUCT IS NOT TO BE USED IN PLACE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS OR WATCHES. THIS PRODUCT IS ONLY USED FOR
OUTLOOK PURPOSES. GRAPHICS FOR THIS PRODUCT WILL BE AVAILABLE BY
JULY 1 1999.
END/PYTLAK/DRBSpecial weather statement, Jun 15, 11:53 AM MST, 5 hours 36 minutes before
AZZ019-030>035-172300-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1153 AM MST TUE JUN 15 1999...THIS PRODUCT IS NOT UPDATED
...LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...
*CONDITIONAL* *CONDITIONAL*
COUNTY AREAL PROBABILITY RAIN GREATER THAN STORM
COVERAGE OF SEVERE 1.00 2.00 MOTION
COCHISE 20 65 5 0
GRAHAM 35 55 5 0
GREENLEE 50 10 5 0
TUCSON/ERN PIMA 15 40 0 0
TOHONO OODHAM 0 0 0 0
SOUTHEAST PINAL 15 40 0 0
WESTERN PIMA 0 0 0 0
SANTA CRUZ 20 55 0 0
SYNOPSIS...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS HAS MOVED OVER SOUTHERN
ARIZONA. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND PROPAGATE INTO
THE LOWER DESERTS EAST OF A SASABE TO PICACHO LINE. SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED EXCEPT IN VERY LOCALIZED AREAS...BUT STRONG
AND PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY THE STORMS. AREAS OF
THICK BLOWING DUST COULD ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STORMS.
*****************************************************************
KEY...
AREAL COVERAGE - PERCENT OF COUNTY OR AREA THAT WILL EXPERIENCE
THUNDERSTORMS
PROB OF SEVERE - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
REACH SEVERE LEVELS (DAMAGING WIND AND/OR
LARGE HAIL)
RAIN GRTR THAN - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
PRODUCE RAIN EXCEEDING 1 INCH OR 2 INCHES IN
ANY LOCATION
STORM MOTION - GENERAL DIRECTION TO WHICH THE STORMS WILL
LIKELY MOVE AND SPEED IN MPH
NOTE...
VALID TIME IS FROM 12:45 PM TO 12 MIDNIGHT OF THE DAY OF ISSUANCE.
THIS PRODUCT IS NOT TO BE USED IN PLACE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS OR WATCHES. THIS PRODUCT IS ONLY USED FOR
OUTLOOK PURPOSES. GRAPHICS FOR THIS PRODUCT WILL BE AVAILABLE BY
JULY 1 1999.
END/PYTLAK/DRB
CORRECTED FOR UGC CODINGSpecial weather statement, Jun 15, 11:53 AM MST, 5 hours 36 minutes before
AZZ019-030>035-172300-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1153 AM MST TUE JUN 15 1999...THIS PRODUCT IS NOT UPDATED
...LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...
*CONDITIONAL* *CONDITIONAL*
COUNTY AREAL PROBABILITY RAIN GREATER THAN STORM
COVERAGE OF SEVERE 1.00 2.00 MOTION
COCHISE 20 65 5 0
GRAHAM 35 55 5 0
GREENLEE 50 10 5 0
TUCSON/ERN PIMA 15 40 0 0
TOHONO OODHAM 0 0 0 0
SOUTHEAST PINAL 15 40 0 0
WESTERN PIMA 0 0 0 0
SANTA CRUZ 20 55 0 0
SYNOPSIS...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS HAS MOVED OVER SOUTHERN
ARIZONA. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND PROPAGATE INTO
THE LOWER DESERTS EAST OF A SASABE TO PICACHO LINE. SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED EXCEPT IN VERY LOCALIZED AREAS...BUT STRONG
AND PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY THE STORMS. AREAS OF
THICK BLOWING DUST COULD ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STORMS.
*****************************************************************
KEY...
AREAL COVERAGE - PERCENT OF COUNTY OR AREA THAT WILL EXPERIENCE
THUNDERSTORMS
PROB OF SEVERE - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
REACH SEVERE LEVELS (DAMAGING WIND AND/OR
LARGE HAIL)
RAIN GRTR THAN - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
PRODUCE RAIN EXCEEDING 1 INCH OR 2 INCHES IN
ANY LOCATION
STORM MOTION - GENERAL DIRECTION TO WHICH THE STORMS WILL
LIKELY MOVE AND SPEED IN MPH
NOTE...
VALID TIME IS FROM 12:45 PM TO 12 MIDNIGHT OF THE DAY OF ISSUANCE.
THIS PRODUCT IS NOT TO BE USED IN PLACE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS OR WATCHES. THIS PRODUCT IS ONLY USED FOR
OUTLOOK PURPOSES. GRAPHICS FOR THIS PRODUCT WILL BE AVAILABLE BY
JULY 1 1999.
END/PYTLAK/DRB
CORRECTED FOR UGC CODINGNearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 1999Every severe thunderstorm warning in 1999
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.