Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 1999

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 13, NWS Tucson, AZ

July 3, 1999Cochise County, Arizona

NWS Tucson, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 3, 1999, 12:06 PM MST for Cochise County, Arizona. It was in force for 49 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Jul 3, 1999, 12:06 PM MST (19:06 UTC)
Expired: Jul 3, 1999, 12:55 PM MST
In force: 49 min
Issued by: NWS Tucson, AZ
Area: Whole counties

County Cochise County, AZ

The radar

The Tucson radar (KEMX), 83 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:09 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Tuscon, AZ (KTUS), launched 12:00Z, 7.1 hours before the alert went out and 113 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 150 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -128 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 2017 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 5 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -5 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 56 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
TTAA00 KTUS 031904 RRA
SVRTUS
AZC003-031955-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1206 PM MST SAT JUL 3 1999

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TUCSON HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHWESTERN COCHISE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA
  INCLUDING SIERRA VISTA AND HUACHUCA CITY

* UNTIL 1255 PM MST

* AT 1205 PM MST... DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
  WITH EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFAzLL IN THE VICINITY OF SIERRA VISTA...
  MOVING NORTHEAST AT 8 MPH.

WJM

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 3, 9:20 AM MST, 2 hours 46 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 3, 9:20 AM MST, 2 hours 46 minutes before

SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
920 AM MST SAT JUL 3 1999

SYNOPSIS...A MOIST MONSOONAL AIR MASS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN OVER
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA DURING THE WEEKEND.  BY EARLY NEXT WEEK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE FOUR-CORNERS AREA. SUCH A PATTERN
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD MONSOON THUNDERSTORMS.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED CELLS THIS MORNING DEVELOPED IN THE COMMA HEAD
OF THE STILL-PRESENT MID LEVEL MESOSCALE VORTEX SIGNATURE WHICH WAS
ABSORBED INTO A MID LEVEL TROUG. THE PRECIP WAS SPOTTY AROUND
TUCSON, BUT INTENSE. WITH THE CLUSTER BEHAVED A LOT LIKE AS
SMALL-SCALE SUBTLE HEAVY RAINFALL SIGNATURE (SHARS) DUE TO THE FAIRLY
WARM TOPS AT THE APEX OF THE COMMA. WITH THE COMMA DRIFTING INTO THE
EASTERN COUNTIES, THINK WELL SEE THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM
REDEVELOPMENT THERE. ELSEWERE, DRIER WEST FLOW HAS TEMPORARILY
ESTABLISHED ITSELF FROM 500MB UP BASED ON PHX SOUNDING. THAT SHOULD
KEEP THE ACTIVITY ISOLATED FROM TUCSON WEST THIS AFTERNOON. WE HAVE
SATURATED TO LOW LEVELS CONSIDERABLY SINCE YESTERDAY, THOUGH, SO I
CERTAINLY CANT DROP POPS ENTIRELY, AND CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SEVERE CELL LIKE WE SAW YESTERDAY EVENING.

NEW MODEL RUNS CONTINUING TO SING THE SAME MUSIC. DEEP EASTERLY FLOW
IS UNDERWAY BY TOMORROW EVENING WHICH SHOULD INCREASE ACTIVITY. THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 IN THE GULF ARE THEN CARRIED BY
THE ETA AND NGM IN SOME FORM (EITHER BODILY OR AS AN INVERTED
TROUGH) INTO US BY 48HRS. THE STUFF OVER THE PAST 24HRS MAY SEEM
LIKE WIMPS BY THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. PYTLAK

.TWC...NONE.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 3, 11:30 AM MST, 36 minutes before

PHXSPSTUS
TTAA00 KTUS DDHHMM

AZZ019-029>035-040500-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1130 AM MST SAT JUL 3 1999...THIS PRODUCT IS NOT UPDATED

                          *CONDITIONAL*   *CONDITIONAL*
COUNTY            AREAL    PROBABILITY  RAIN GREATER THAN   STORM
                 COVERAGE   OF SEVERE     1.00      2.00    MOTION

COCHISE             35          20         50        20      NE 7
GRAHAM              35          10         35        10      NE 6
GREENLEE            30           5         35        10      NE 6
TUCSON/ERN PIMA     20          15         30         0      NE 6
TOHONO O'ODHAM      10           5         15         0      NE 5
SOUTHEAST PINAL     10          10         15         0      NE 6
WESTERN PIMA         0           0          5         0
SANTA CRUZ          30          20         35         5      NE 7

SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL INCREASES INTO
THE DEEPER MOISTURE IN COCHISE COUNTY. THIS COMBINED WITH SLOW
STORM MOVEMENT SHOULD MAKE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS
OF 1 INCH MORE COMMON WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING A CONCERN.
*****************************************************************
KEY...
AREAL COVERAGE - PERCENT OF COUNTY OR AREA THAT WILL EXPERIENCE
                 THUNDERSTORMS
PROB OF SEVERE - THE PROBABILITY THAT AN INDIVIDUAL STORM WILL
                 REACH SEVERE LEVELS (DAMAGING WIND AND/OR
                 LARGE HAIL)
RAIN GRTR THAN - THE PROBABILITY THAT AN INDIVIDUAL STORM WILL
                 PRODUCE RAIN EXCEEDING 1 INCH OR 2 INCHES IN
                 ANY LOCATION
STORM MOTION   - GENERAL DIRECTION TO WHICH THE STORMS WILL
                 LIKELY MOVE AND SPEED IN MPH

NOTE...
VALID TIME IS FROM 12:45 PM TO 12 MIDNIGHT OF THE DAY OF ISSUANCE.
THIS PRODUCT IS NOT TO BE USED IN PLACE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS OR WATCHES. THIS PRODUCT IS ONLY USED FOR
OUTLOOK PURPOSES. CORRESPONDING GRAPHICS MAY BE FOUND ON THE NWS
TUCSON INTERNET PAGE AT
HTTP://NIMBO.WRH.NOAA.GOV/TUCSON/SWO/SWO.SHTML

END/

Special weather statement, Jul 3, 11:30 AM MST, 36 minutes before

PHXSPSTUS
TTAA00 KTUS DDHHMM

AZZ019-029>035-040500-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1130 AM MST SAT JUL 3 1999...THIS PRODUCT IS NOT UPDATED

                          *CONDITIONAL*   *CONDITIONAL*
COUNTY            AREAL    PROBABILITY  RAIN GREATER THAN   STORM
                 COVERAGE   OF SEVERE     1.00      2.00    MOTION

COCHISE             35          20         50        20      NE 7
GRAHAM              35          10         35        10      NE 6
GREENLEE            30           5         35        10      NE 6
TUCSON/ERN PIMA     20          15         30         0      NE 6
TOHONO O'ODHAM      10           5         15         0      NE 5
SOUTHEAST PINAL     10          10         15         0      NE 6
WESTERN PIMA         0           0          5         0
SANTA CRUZ          30          20         35         5      NE 7

SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL INCREASES INTO
THE DEEPER MOISTURE IN COCHISE COUNTY. THIS COMBINED WITH SLOW
STORM MOVEMENT SHOULD MAKE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS
OF 1 INCH MORE COMMON WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING A CONCERN.
*****************************************************************
KEY...
AREAL COVERAGE - PERCENT OF COUNTY OR AREA THAT WILL EXPERIENCE
                 THUNDERSTORMS
PROB OF SEVERE - THE PROBABILITY THAT AN INDIVIDUAL STORM WILL
                 REACH SEVERE LEVELS (DAMAGING WIND AND/OR
                 LARGE HAIL)
RAIN GRTR THAN - THE PROBABILITY THAT AN INDIVIDUAL STORM WILL
                 PRODUCE RAIN EXCEEDING 1 INCH OR 2 INCHES IN
                 ANY LOCATION
STORM MOTION   - GENERAL DIRECTION TO WHICH THE STORMS WILL
                 LIKELY MOVE AND SPEED IN MPH

NOTE...
VALID TIME IS FROM 12:45 PM TO 12 MIDNIGHT OF THE DAY OF ISSUANCE.
THIS PRODUCT IS NOT TO BE USED IN PLACE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS OR WATCHES. THIS PRODUCT IS ONLY USED FOR
OUTLOOK PURPOSES. CORRESPONDING GRAPHICS MAY BE FOUND ON THE NWS
TUCSON INTERNET PAGE AT
HTTP://NIMBO.WRH.NOAA.GOV/TUCSON/SWO/SWO.SHTML

END/

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tucson, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 2, 5:22 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Pima	53 min
Jul 2, 5:37 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Pima	48 min
Jul 3, 10:38 AM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Cochise	32 min
Jul 3, 11:42 AM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Cochise	33 min
Jul 3, 1:04 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Cochise	51 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 1999 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 1999

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.