Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 1999

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 101, NWS Tucson, AZ

September 15, 1999Pinal County, Arizona

NWS Tucson, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Sep 15, 1999, 5:03 PM MST for Pinal County, Arizona. It was in force for 42 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Sep 15, 1999, 5:03 PM MST (00:03 UTC)
Expired
Sep 15, 1999, 5:45 PM MST
In force
42 min
Issued by
NWS Tucson, AZ
Area
Whole counties

County Pinal County, AZ

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Sep 15, 5:30 PM MSTHail 0.75Superior, AZLarge hail was reported throughout the area along with heavy rain. One spotter about 7 miles east of Superior, at Top of the World, reported 1.10 inch in just 25 minutes.

NCEI Storm Data entries that began inside the alert's area while it was in force. Before 2003 the local storm report archive is thin, so this is the record of what happened rather than what was phoned in.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

IssuedProductOfficeLasted
Sep 15, 12:30 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPC6 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Tuscon, AZ (KTUS), launched 00:00Z, 0.1 hours before the alert went out and 92 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Tuscon, AZ at 00:00Z on 1999-09-16Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 180 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Tuscon, AZ at 00:00Z on 1999-09-16The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -41 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
180 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-272 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
2091 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
38 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-41 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
-46 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
-0.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
TTAA00 KTUS 160005 RRA
SVRTUS
AZC021-160050-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
503 PM MST WED SEP 15 1999

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TUCSON HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA


* UNTIL 545 PM MST

* AT 459 PM MST... DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
10 MILES NORTHEAST OF FLORENCE MOVING NORTHEAST 15 MPH.

* THE SEVERE TzHUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
KELVIN BY 515 PM
HIGHWAY 177 525 PM

THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
TAKE COVER AS THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Sep 15, 2:10 PM MST, 2 hours 53 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 15, 2:10 PM MST, 2 hours 53 minutes before
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
210 PM MST WED SEP 15 1999

SYNOPSIS...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE...HEATING AND INSTABILITY WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE
STRONG. DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN PIMA COUNTY WILL
SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. EVEN
SO...THERE WILL STILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND THIS WEEKEND
FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS.

DISCUSSION...STRONG SHEAR PROFILE THIS AFTERNOON FOR WIDESPREAD
SEVERE CONVECTION. FOCUS HAS SHIFTED SOUTH AND EAST TO INCLUDE MOST
OF THE CWA INCLUDING METRO TUCSON. MAIN ENERGY FROM TROUGH PULLING
OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN THE NEXT 24 HRS...BUT A PIECE TRAILS A BIT IN
EASTERN ARIZONA AS WELL AS A WEAK IMPULSE CAUGHT IN THE WESTERLIES
DOWN AROUND THIS LATITUDE TO HELP FOCUS THINGS. A RELATIVELY WEAK
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SMASHED TO SMITHEREENS WITH BARELY A BACKWARD
GLANCE.

BRISK WESTERLY FLOW...BUT IMMEDIATE UPSTREAM OF THAT FOR OUR AREA
STILL CONTAINS 1 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. WELL START TO SEE
SOME DRYING IN THE FAR WEST...BUT NOT MUCH OF THAT INFLUENCING
THINGS AROUND HERE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT TO FLOW RETURNING IN EASTERN PORTIONS AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
PUSHES UP OUT OF OLD MEXICO. MEYER

.TWC...NONE.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Sep 15, 12:05 PM MST, 4 hours 58 minutes before
AZZ019-029-030-032-033-035-160100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1205 PM MST WED SEP 15 1999

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 6 PM MST FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM FOR SOUTHEAST
PINAL...GRAHAM...GREENLEE...CENTRAL PIMA...EASTERN PIMA AND NORTHERN
COCHISE COUNTIES. THIS INCLUDES LOCATIONS SUCH AS METROPOLITAN
TUCSON...SELLS...GREEN VALLEY...ORACLE...SAFFORD...CLIFTON...
BENSON...AND WILLCOX.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS INCLUDES DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION AREA OF
BLOWING DUST ARE POSSIBLE AWAY FROM STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE EXPERIENCED WITH STORMS.

MEYER
Special weather statement, Sep 15, 12:05 PM MST, 4 hours 58 minutes before
AZZ019-029-030-032-033-035-160100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1205 PM MST WED SEP 15 1999

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 6 PM MST FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM FOR SOUTHEAST
PINAL...GRAHAM...GREENLEE...CENTRAL PIMA...EASTERN PIMA AND NORTHERN
COCHISE COUNTIES. THIS INCLUDES LOCATIONS SUCH AS METROPOLITAN
TUCSON...SELLS...GREEN VALLEY...ORACLE...SAFFORD...CLIFTON...
BENSON...AND WILLCOX.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS INCLUDES DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION AREA OF
BLOWING DUST ARE POSSIBLE AWAY FROM STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE EXPERIENCED WITH STORMS.

MEYER
Special weather statement, Sep 15, 12:45 PM MST, 4 hours 18 minutes before
AZZ019-029>035-160500-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1245 PM MST WED SEP 15 1999...THIS PRODUCT IS NOT UPDATED

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 6 PM MST FOR SOUTHEAST PINAL...
CENTRAL PIMA...EASTERN PIMA...GRAHAM...GREENLEE...AND NORTHERN
COCHISE COUNTIES...

                          *CONDITIONAL*   *CONDITIONAL*
COUNTY            AREAL    PROBABILITY  RAIN GREATER THAN   STORM
                 COVERAGE   OF SEVERE     1.00      2.00    MOTION

COCHISE             40          20         35         5     E 15
GRAHAM              50          30         45         5     E 20
GREENLEE            65          30         45         5     E 20
TUCSON/ERN PIMA     40          25         45         5     E 15
TOHONO OODHAM      35          20         45         5     E 12
SOUTHEAST PINAL     40          25         45         5     E 15
WESTERN PIMA        20           5         45         5     ESE10
SANTA CRUZ          40          10         45         5     ESE10

SYNOPSIS...MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SHEAR
PROFILE INDICATES STRONG SEVERE WEATHER SIGNATURES. FAST MOVING
SO FLOODING IS NOT A BIG CONCERN. EASTERN AREAS COULD SEE
ACTIVITY SUSTAINED WELL INTO THE EVENING.
*****************************************************************
KEY...
AREAL COVERAGE - PERCENT OF COUNTY OR AREA THAT WILL EXPERIENCE
                 THUNDERSTORMS
PROB OF SEVERE - THE PROBABILITY THAT AN INDIVIDUAL STORM WILL
                 REACH SEVERE LEVELS (DAMAGING WIND AND/OR
                 LARGE HAIL)
RAIN GRTR THAN - THE PROBABILITY THAT AN INDIVIDUAL STORM WILL
                 PRODUCE RAIN EXCEEDING 1 INCH OR 2 INCHES IN
                 ANY LOCATION
STORM MOTION   - GENERAL DIRECTION TO WHICH THE STORMS WILL
                 LIKELY MOVE AND SPEED IN MPH

NOTE...
VALID TIME IS FROM 12:45 PM TO 12 MIDNIGHT OF THE DAY OF ISSUANCE.
THIS PRODUCT IS NOT TO BE USED IN PLACE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS OR WATCHES. THIS PRODUCT IS ONLY USED FOR
OUTLOOK PURPOSES. CORRESPONDING GRAPHICS MAY BE FOUND ON THE NWS
TUCSON INTERNET PAGE AT
HTTP://NIMBO.WRH.NOAA.GOV/TUCSON/SWO/SWO.SHTML

END/
Special weather statement, Sep 15, 12:45 PM MST, 4 hours 18 minutes before
AZZ019-029>035-160500-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1245 PM MST WED SEP 15 1999...THIS PRODUCT IS NOT UPDATED

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 6 PM MST FOR SOUTHEAST PINAL...
CENTRAL PIMA...EASTERN PIMA...GRAHAM...GREENLEE...AND NORTHERN
COCHISE COUNTIES...

                          *CONDITIONAL*   *CONDITIONAL*
COUNTY            AREAL    PROBABILITY  RAIN GREATER THAN   STORM
                 COVERAGE   OF SEVERE     1.00      2.00    MOTION

COCHISE             40          20         35         5     E 15
GRAHAM              50          30         45         5     E 20
GREENLEE            65          30         45         5     E 20
TUCSON/ERN PIMA     40          25         45         5     E 15
TOHONO OODHAM      35          20         45         5     E 12
SOUTHEAST PINAL     40          25         45         5     E 15
WESTERN PIMA        20           5         45         5     ESE10
SANTA CRUZ          40          10         45         5     ESE10

SYNOPSIS...MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SHEAR
PROFILE INDICATES STRONG SEVERE WEATHER SIGNATURES. FAST MOVING
SO FLOODING IS NOT A BIG CONCERN. EASTERN AREAS COULD SEE
ACTIVITY SUSTAINED WELL INTO THE EVENING.
*****************************************************************
KEY...
AREAL COVERAGE - PERCENT OF COUNTY OR AREA THAT WILL EXPERIENCE
                 THUNDERSTORMS
PROB OF SEVERE - THE PROBABILITY THAT AN INDIVIDUAL STORM WILL
                 REACH SEVERE LEVELS (DAMAGING WIND AND/OR
                 LARGE HAIL)
RAIN GRTR THAN - THE PROBABILITY THAT AN INDIVIDUAL STORM WILL
                 PRODUCE RAIN EXCEEDING 1 INCH OR 2 INCHES IN
                 ANY LOCATION
STORM MOTION   - GENERAL DIRECTION TO WHICH THE STORMS WILL
                 LIKELY MOVE AND SPEED IN MPH

NOTE...
VALID TIME IS FROM 12:45 PM TO 12 MIDNIGHT OF THE DAY OF ISSUANCE.
THIS PRODUCT IS NOT TO BE USED IN PLACE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS OR WATCHES. THIS PRODUCT IS ONLY USED FOR
OUTLOOK PURPOSES. CORRESPONDING GRAPHICS MAY BE FOUND ON THE NWS
TUCSON INTERNET PAGE AT
HTTP://NIMBO.WRH.NOAA.GOV/TUCSON/SWO/SWO.SHTML

END/

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 1999Every severe thunderstorm warning in 1999

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; verification from NCEI's Storm Data; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.