Alert archive / Arizona / Flash Flood Warnings in 1999

Flash Flood Warning 42, NWS Tucson, AZ

September 13, 1999Cochise County, Arizona

NWS Tucson, AZ issued this flash flood warning at Sep 13, 1999, 2:42 PM MST for Cochise County, Arizona. It was in force for 2 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Sep 13, 1999, 2:42 PM MST (21:42 UTC)
Expired
Sep 13, 1999, 4:45 PM MST
In force
2 hr
Issued by
NWS Tucson, AZ
Area
Whole counties

County Cochise County, AZ

The nearest sounding before it

Tuscon, AZ (KTUS), launched 12:00Z, 9.7 hours before the alert went out and 113 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Tuscon, AZ at 12:00Z on 1999-09-13Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 20 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Tuscon, AZ at 12:00Z on 1999-09-13The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 24 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
20 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-391 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
2757 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
31 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
24 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
36 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
TTAA00 KTUS 132142
FFWTUS
AZC003-132345-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
242 PM MST MON SEP 13 1999

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TUCSON HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  EAST CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA
  INCLUDING SUNIZONA.

* UNTIL 445 PM MST

* AT 242 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
  A THUNDERSTORM WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG HIGHWAY 181 JUST WEST ^OF
  THE CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS....MOVING SLOWLY EAST.

* EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES TO CAUSE FLOODING
  OF TURKEY CREEK AND ASH CREEK ALONG HIGHWAY 181.

WJM

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Sep 13, 2:30 PM MST, 12 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 13, 2:30 PM MST, 12 minutes before
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
230 PM MST MON SEP 13 1999

SYNOPSIS...A WEAK BOUNDARY FROM NEW MEXICO COMBINED WITH A SOUTHERLY
MOISTURE SOURCE WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID
WEEK. THIS COULD ALSO BE ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN BY WEDNESDAY. AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE
STATE BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WE SHOULD SEE SOME DRYING FROM THE
WEST.

DISCUSSION...LOTS OF THINGS GOING ON...SOME KIND OF BACK-DOOR
DISTURBANCE NOW WEST OF DEMING AND GETTING CLOSE TO OUR CWA.
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SOURCE AND TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT
BASIN BY WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER TREND BACK UP OVER AN INCH
ALL AREAS. COULD BE QUITE INTERESTING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS OR SO.
ALSO...NO HURRY TO END THE MONSOON IN THE EXTENDED AS WELL BE THE
LAST TO CLING TO MOISTURE IN THE FACE OF INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW.
MEYER

.TWC...NONE.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Sep 13, 12:45 PM MST, 1 hour 57 minutes before
AZZ019-029>035-140500-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1245 PM MST MON SEP 13 1999...THIS PRODUCT IS NOT UPDATED

                          *CONDITIONAL*   *CONDITIONAL*
COUNTY            AREAL    PROBABILITY  RAIN GREATER THAN   STORM
                 COVERAGE   OF SEVERE     1.00      2.00    MOTION

COCHISE             35          15         30         0     SE 8
GRAHAM              30          15         30         0     S 8
GREENLEE            35          10         30         0     S 8
TUCSON/ERN PIMA     25          15         30         0     SE 8
TOHONO OODHAM      20           5         30         0     SE 8
SOUTHEAST PINAL     20          10         25         0     SE 8
WESTERN PIMA        10           0         30         0     SE 10
SANTA CRUZ          25          15         30         0     SE 8

SYNOPSIS...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING AND
INFLUENCE FROM BACK-DOOR FRONT MOVING IN FROM NEW MEXICO TO
PROVIDE BETTER FOCUS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS A
CONCERN.
*****************************************************************
KEY...
AREAL COVERAGE - PERCENT OF COUNTY OR AREA THAT WILL EXPERIENCE
                 THUNDERSTORMS
PROB OF SEVERE - THE PROBABILITY THAT AN INDIVIDUAL STORM WILL
                 REACH SEVERE LEVELS (DAMAGING WIND AND/OR
                 LARGE HAIL)
RAIN GRTR THAN - THE PROBABILITY THAT AN INDIVIDUAL STORM WILL
                 PRODUCE RAIN EXCEEDING 1 INCH OR 2 INCHES IN
                 ANY LOCATION
STORM MOTION   - GENERAL DIRECTION TO WHICH THE STORMS WILL
                 LIKELY MOVE AND SPEED IN MPH

NOTE...
VALID TIME IS FROM 12:45 PM TO 12 MIDNIGHT OF THE DAY OF ISSUANCE.
THIS PRODUCT IS NOT TO BE USED IN PLACE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS OR WATCHES. THIS PRODUCT IS ONLY USED FOR
OUTLOOK PURPOSES. CORRESPONDING GRAPHICS MAY BE FOUND ON THE NWS
TUCSON INTERNET PAGE AT
HTTP://NIMBO.WRH.NOAA.GOV/TUCSON/SWO/SWO.SHTML

END/
Special weather statement, Sep 13, 12:45 PM MST, 1 hour 57 minutes before
AZZ019-029>035-140500-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1245 PM MST MON SEP 13 1999...THIS PRODUCT IS NOT UPDATED

                          *CONDITIONAL*   *CONDITIONAL*
COUNTY            AREAL    PROBABILITY  RAIN GREATER THAN   STORM
                 COVERAGE   OF SEVERE     1.00      2.00    MOTION

COCHISE             35          15         30         0     SE 8
GRAHAM              30          15         30         0     S 8
GREENLEE            35          10         30         0     S 8
TUCSON/ERN PIMA     25          15         30         0     SE 8
TOHONO OODHAM      20           5         30         0     SE 8
SOUTHEAST PINAL     20          10         25         0     SE 8
WESTERN PIMA        10           0         30         0     SE 10
SANTA CRUZ          25          15         30         0     SE 8

SYNOPSIS...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING AND
INFLUENCE FROM BACK-DOOR FRONT MOVING IN FROM NEW MEXICO TO
PROVIDE BETTER FOCUS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS A
CONCERN.
*****************************************************************
KEY...
AREAL COVERAGE - PERCENT OF COUNTY OR AREA THAT WILL EXPERIENCE
                 THUNDERSTORMS
PROB OF SEVERE - THE PROBABILITY THAT AN INDIVIDUAL STORM WILL
                 REACH SEVERE LEVELS (DAMAGING WIND AND/OR
                 LARGE HAIL)
RAIN GRTR THAN - THE PROBABILITY THAT AN INDIVIDUAL STORM WILL
                 PRODUCE RAIN EXCEEDING 1 INCH OR 2 INCHES IN
                 ANY LOCATION
STORM MOTION   - GENERAL DIRECTION TO WHICH THE STORMS WILL
                 LIKELY MOVE AND SPEED IN MPH

NOTE...
VALID TIME IS FROM 12:45 PM TO 12 MIDNIGHT OF THE DAY OF ISSUANCE.
THIS PRODUCT IS NOT TO BE USED IN PLACE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS OR WATCHES. THIS PRODUCT IS ONLY USED FOR
OUTLOOK PURPOSES. CORRESPONDING GRAPHICS MAY BE FOUND ON THE NWS
TUCSON INTERNET PAGE AT
HTTP://NIMBO.WRH.NOAA.GOV/TUCSON/SWO/SWO.SHTML

END/

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tucson, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Sep 13, 1:04 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTWCPima46 min
Sep 13, 2:32 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTWCCochise43 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Arizona, 1999Every flash flood warning in 1999

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.