Alert archive / Arizona / Flash Flood Warnings in 1999

Flash Flood Warning 37, NWS Tucson, AZ

August 19, 1999Pima County, Arizona

NWS Tucson, AZ issued this flash flood warning at Aug 19, 1999, 3:19 PM MST for Pima County, Arizona. It was in force for 61 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Aug 19, 1999, 3:19 PM MST (22:19 UTC)
Expired: Aug 19, 1999, 4:20 PM MST
In force: 61 min
Issued by: NWS Tucson, AZ
Area: Whole counties

County Pima County, AZ

The radar

The Tucson radar (KEMX), 112 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:18 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Tuscon, AZ (KTUS), launched 12:00Z, 10.3 hours before the alert went out and 84 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 2499 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 10 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -6 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 21 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
TTAA00 KTUS 192223
FFWTUS
AZC019-192320-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
319 PM MST THU AUG 19 1999

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TUCSON HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN PIMA COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ARIZONA


* UNTIL 420 PM MST

* AT 320 PM MST... RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES AND SPOTTER REPORTS
  INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE TUCSON
  FOOTHILLS EXTENDTING INTO NORTHWEST TUCSON...
  MOVING NORTHWEST 15 MPH.

* THUNDERSTORMS WITH EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAVE PRODUCE AS MUCH AS 2
  INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE FOOTHILLS OF TUCSON.  RADAR SHOWS THE
  HEAVIEST RAIN HAS OCCURRED IN THE SUNRISE AND CRAYCROFT
  INTERSECTION. SPOTTERS HAVE REPORTED FLOODING IN THE AREA.  THESE
  STORMS WILL MOVE TOWARD ORO VALLEY AND NORTHWEST TUCSON.

FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED OVER THE FOOTHILLS OF TUCSON INTO THE
ORO VALLEY AND NORTHWEST TUCSON AREAS BEFORE 420 PM.  AVOID LOW
WATER CROSSINGS.

DRB

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Aug 19, 2:00 PM MST, 1 hour 19 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 19, 2:00 PM MST, 1 hour 19 minutes before

SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
200 PM MST THU AUG 19 1999

SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SET UP NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A FAVORABLE SOUTHEAST MONSOONAL
WIND FLOW. DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE AROUND THE HIGH AND INTO SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA FROM TIME TO TIME INTO NEXT WEEK...THUS AN ACTIVE MONSOON
THUNDERSTORM PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED STORMS FIRING OFF ON CUE. ORGANIZATION
EVIDENT IN COMPLEX SOUTH OF DOUGLAS WITH SOME TRAINING FEATURES
BEGINNING TO MANIFEST THROUGH AREAS OF SANTA CRUZ COUNTY...ON THE
BOUNDARY OF THE DEEPEST MOISTURE THAT EXTENDS WEST INTO THE SURGE
OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. SEMI-ACTIVE TO ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
IN STORE WITH INITIAL ACTION WEST OF COCHISE COUNTY...BUT THEYLL
JOIN IN NICELY BY EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE THE STATUS WILL REMAIN
QUO AND VARYING DEGREES OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. MID TO LATE AUGUST...NOW IT GETS INTERESTING.
MEYER

.TWC...NONE.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Aug 19, 1:19 PM MST, 2 hours before

AZZ019-029>035-200500-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1245 PM MST THU AUG 19 1999...THIS PRODUCT IS NOT UPDATED

                          *CONDITIONAL*   *CONDITIONAL*
COUNTY            AREAL    PROBABILITY  RAIN GREATER THAN   STORM
                 COVERAGE   OF SEVERE     1.00      2.00    MOTION

COCHISE             30           5         25         0     NE 10
GRAHAM              35           5         30         5     NE 10
GREENLEE            45           5         30         5     NE 12
TUCSON/ERN PIMA     30           5         30         5     NE 12
TOHONO OODHAM      30           5         35        10     NE 15
SOUTHEAST PINAL     30           5         30         5     NE 12
WESTERN PIMA        35           5         40        15     NE 15
SANTA CRUZ          30          10         30         5     NE 12

SYNOPSIS...SURGE THROUGH THE LOWER DESERTS WITH SOME DYNAMICS
SHOULD PROVIDE PLENTY OF ACTIVITY OUT WEST. OTHERWISE YOUR
USUAL LIST OF SUSPECTS WITH SPECIAL ATTENTION TO THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ELSEWHERE.
*****************************************************************
KEY...
AREAL COVERAGE - PERCENT OF COUNTY OR AREA THAT WILL EXPERIENCE
                 THUNDERSTORMS
PROB OF SEVERE - THE PROBABILITY THAT AN INDIVIDUAL STORM WILL
                 REACH SEVERE LEVELS (DAMAGING WIND AND/OR
                 LARGE HAIL)
RAIN GRTR THAN - THE PROBABILITY THAT AN INDIVIDUAL STORM WILL
                 PRODUCE RAIN EXCEEDING 1 INCH OR 2 INCHES IN
                 ANY LOCATION
STORM MOTION   - GENERAL DIRECTION TO WHICH THE STORMS WILL
                 LIKELY MOVE AND SPEED IN MPH

NOTE...
VALID TIME IS FROM 12:45 PM TO 12 MIDNIGHT OF THE DAY OF ISSUANCE.
THIS PRODUCT IS NOT TO BE USED IN PLACE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS OR WATCHES. THIS PRODUCT IS ONLY USED FOR
OUTLOOK PURPOSES. CORRESPONDING GRAPHICS MAY BE FOUND ON THE NWS
TUCSON INTERNET PAGE AT
HTTP://NIMBO.WRH.NOAA.GOV/TUCSON/SWO/SWO.SHTML

END/

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tucson, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Aug 19, 1:35 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Santa Cruz	40 min
Aug 19, 2:14 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Pima	31 min
Aug 19, 2:28 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Pima, Santa Cruz	62 min
Aug 19, 4:13 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Pinal	62 min
Aug 19, 4:40 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Cochise, Santa Cruz	50 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Arizona, 1999 Every flash flood warning in 1999

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.