Alert archive / Arizona / Flash Flood Warnings in 1999
Flash Flood Warning 31, NWS Tucson, AZ
NWS Tucson, AZ issued this flash flood warning at Aug 8, 1999, 2:41 PM MST for Cochise County, Arizona. It was in force for 119 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline the Iowa Environmental Mesonet reconstructed for it; the warning itself named whole counties.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 8, 1999, 2:41 PM MST (21:41 UTC)
- Expired
- Aug 8, 1999, 4:40 PM MST
- In force
- 119 min
- Issued by
- NWS Tucson, AZ
- Area
- Whole counties; the outline is the Mesonet’s reconstruction
County Cochise County, AZ
The radar
The Tucson radar (KEMX), 122 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:44 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Tuscon, AZ (KTUS), launched 12:00Z, 9.7 hours before the alert went out and 152 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2764 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 14 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -26 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 84 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 TTAA00 KTWC 082143 FFWTUS AZC003-082340- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 241 PM MST SUN AUG 8 1999 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TUCSON HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAIN RANGE IN EAST-CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY. * UNTIL 440 PM MST * AT 235 PM MST...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER THE CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS IN EAST-CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THROUGH 430 PM MST. EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THESE STORMS WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS...ROADS AND ROADSIDE CULVERTS. THE HEAVY RAINS COULD ALSO TRIGGER ROCK OR MUDSLIDES IN STEEP TERRAIN. A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY. RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY AUTOMOBILE. IF YOUR VEHICLE STALLS, ABANDON IT IMMEDIATELY AND SEEK HIGHER GROUND. LAT...LON 3161 10946 3163 10918 3206 10919 3202 10946
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Aug 8, 2:00 PM MST, 41 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 8, 2:00 PM MST, 41 minutes before
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 200 PM MST SUN AUG 8 1999 SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS...ALLOWING MONSOON MOISTURE TO SPREAD BACK INTO MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A DRYING TREND BY THURSDAY. DISCUSSION...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING OVER FAR EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY AND SOUTH OF DOUGLAS IN MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE STORMS SOUTH OF THE BORDER THIS EVENING TO SEE HOW FAR NORTH THEY PROPAGATE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT ISOLATED ACTIVITY TONIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF STORMS NEAR THE BORDER AROUND DOUGLAS AND NEAR THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO STATE LINE. LATEST MODELS CONTINUED TO SHOW AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. NOT SURE HOW FAR WEST THIS MOISTURE WILL GO WITH THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH STILL ANCHORED ALONG THE WEST COAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWED AN EASTERLY WAVE MOVING OVER MEXICO WHICH WAS AIDING IN THE WESTWARD PUSH OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TODAY. EXPECT THIS WAVE TO TRIGGER A STORM COMPLEX FARTHER NORTH TONIGHT THAN WHAT OCCURRED LAST EVENING. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR AN UPSWING IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS EJECT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE WEST COAST INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WITH DRIER AIR SPREADING INTO THE STATE. AS A RESULT...WILL LIKELY SEE A DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS BY THURSDAY WITH A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER PART OF THE AREA. JD .TWC...NONE.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Aug 8, 12:50 PM MST, 1 hour 51 minutes before
AZZ019-029>035-090500-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1250 PM MST SUN AUG 8 1999...THIS PRODUCT IS NOT UPDATED
*CONDITIONAL* *CONDITIONAL*
COUNTY AREAL PROBABILITY RAIN GREATER THAN STORM
COVERAGE OF SEVERE 1.00 2.00 MOTION
COCHISE 10 15 35 0 N 10
GRAHAM 10 10 10 0 N 10
GREENLEE 20 15 35 0 N 10
TUCSON/ERN PIMA 5 5 0 0 NNE 10
TOHONO OODHAM 0 0 0 0
SOUTHEAST PINAL 0 0 0 0
WESTERN PIMA 0 0 0 0
SANTA CRUZ 5 10 5 0 NNE 10
SYNOPSIS...THE FLOW PATTERN BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG
THE WEST COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER TEXAS CONTINUED TO RESULT IN
A SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA TODAY. THE
AIR MASS FROM TUCSON WESTWARD REMAINED DRY AND WARM ALOFT...WHILE
SIGNS OF AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WERE TAKING PLACE OUT EAST. LATEST
WEATHER MODELS CONTINUED TO SHOW A GRADUAL NORTHWEST PUSH OF
MOISTURE STARTING THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
A DAY-TO-DAY INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS MONDAY INTO
POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY.
IN THE MEANTIME...DRIER AND WARMER AIR ALOFT OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
PIMA COUNTY WILL LIKELY KEEP STORMS FROM DEVELOPING THERE TODAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FROM NEAR TUCSON EASTWARD
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LOW TODAY...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
BEING THE MAIN CONCERN ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS.
*****************************************************************
KEY...
AREAL COVERAGE - PERCENT OF COUNTY OR AREA THAT WILL EXPERIENCE
THUNDERSTORMS
PROB OF SEVERE - THE PROBABILITY THAT AN INDIVIDUAL STORM WILL
REACH SEVERE LEVELS (DAMAGING WIND AND/OR
LARGE HAIL)
RAIN GRTR THAN - THE PROBABILITY THAT AN INDIVIDUAL STORM WILL
PRODUCE RAIN EXCEEDING 1 INCH OR 2 INCHES IN
ANY LOCATION
STORM MOTION - GENERAL DIRECTION TO WHICH THE STORMS WILL
LIKELY MOVE AND SPEED IN MPH
NOTE...
VALID TIME IS FROM 12:45 PM TO 12 MIDNIGHT OF THE DAY OF ISSUANCE.
THIS PRODUCT IS NOT TO BE USED IN PLACE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS OR WATCHES. THIS PRODUCT IS ONLY USED FOR
OUTLOOK PURPOSES. CORRESPONDING GRAPHICS MAY BE FOUND ON THE NWS
TUCSON INTERNET PAGE AT
HTTP://NIMBO.WRH.NOAA.GOV/TUCSON/SWO/SWO.SHTML
END/Special weather statement, Aug 8, 12:50 PM MST, 1 hour 51 minutes before
AZZ019-029>035-090500-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1250 PM MST SUN AUG 8 1999...THIS PRODUCT IS NOT UPDATED
*CONDITIONAL* *CONDITIONAL*
COUNTY AREAL PROBABILITY RAIN GREATER THAN STORM
COVERAGE OF SEVERE 1.00 2.00 MOTION
COCHISE 10 15 35 0 N 10
GRAHAM 10 10 10 0 N 10
GREENLEE 20 15 35 0 N 10
TUCSON/ERN PIMA 5 5 0 0 NNE 10
TOHONO OODHAM 0 0 0 0
SOUTHEAST PINAL 0 0 0 0
WESTERN PIMA 0 0 0 0
SANTA CRUZ 5 10 5 0 NNE 10
SYNOPSIS...THE FLOW PATTERN BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG
THE WEST COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER TEXAS CONTINUED TO RESULT IN
A SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA TODAY. THE
AIR MASS FROM TUCSON WESTWARD REMAINED DRY AND WARM ALOFT...WHILE
SIGNS OF AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WERE TAKING PLACE OUT EAST. LATEST
WEATHER MODELS CONTINUED TO SHOW A GRADUAL NORTHWEST PUSH OF
MOISTURE STARTING THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
A DAY-TO-DAY INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS MONDAY INTO
POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY.
IN THE MEANTIME...DRIER AND WARMER AIR ALOFT OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
PIMA COUNTY WILL LIKELY KEEP STORMS FROM DEVELOPING THERE TODAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FROM NEAR TUCSON EASTWARD
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LOW TODAY...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
BEING THE MAIN CONCERN ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS.
*****************************************************************
KEY...
AREAL COVERAGE - PERCENT OF COUNTY OR AREA THAT WILL EXPERIENCE
THUNDERSTORMS
PROB OF SEVERE - THE PROBABILITY THAT AN INDIVIDUAL STORM WILL
REACH SEVERE LEVELS (DAMAGING WIND AND/OR
LARGE HAIL)
RAIN GRTR THAN - THE PROBABILITY THAT AN INDIVIDUAL STORM WILL
PRODUCE RAIN EXCEEDING 1 INCH OR 2 INCHES IN
ANY LOCATION
STORM MOTION - GENERAL DIRECTION TO WHICH THE STORMS WILL
LIKELY MOVE AND SPEED IN MPH
NOTE...
VALID TIME IS FROM 12:45 PM TO 12 MIDNIGHT OF THE DAY OF ISSUANCE.
THIS PRODUCT IS NOT TO BE USED IN PLACE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS OR WATCHES. THIS PRODUCT IS ONLY USED FOR
OUTLOOK PURPOSES. CORRESPONDING GRAPHICS MAY BE FOUND ON THE NWS
TUCSON INTERNET PAGE AT
HTTP://NIMBO.WRH.NOAA.GOV/TUCSON/SWO/SWO.SHTML
END/Nearby
Flash Flood Warnings in Arizona, 1999Every flash flood warning in 1999
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.