Alert archive / Arizona / Flash Flood Warnings in 1999
Flash Flood Warning 20, NWS Tucson, AZ
NWS Tucson, AZ issued this flash flood warning at Jul 25, 1999, 12:24 PM MST for Cochise County, Arizona. It was in force for 61 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 25, 1999, 12:24 PM MST (19:24 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 25, 1999, 1:25 PM MST
- In force
- 61 min
- Issued by
- NWS Tucson, AZ
- Area
- Whole counties
County Cochise County, AZ
The radar
The Tucson radar (KEMX), 83 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:28 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Tuscon, AZ (KTUS), launched 12:00Z, 7.4 hours before the alert went out and 113 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 454 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -88 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1482 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 5 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 2 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 32 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 TTAA00 KTUS 251920 FFWTUS AZC003-252025- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 1224 PM MST SUN JUL 25 1999 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TUCSON HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... EAST CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA INCLUDING THE CHIRICAHUA NATIONAL MONUMENT * UNTIL 125 PM MST * AT 1215 PM...RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES AND SPOTTER REPORTS INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS...MOVING SLOWLY NORTH. * BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ON THE CHIRIACHUA MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 1030 AND AND NOON. CAMPGROUNDS IN THE NATIONAL FOREST AREA WERE BEING EVACUATED DUE TO RAPIDLY RISING WATERH. MOVE AWAY FROM CREEKS AND STREAMS IMMEDIATELY. EVEN THOUGH THE HEAVY RAINS WERE TAPERING OFF...CONTINUED RUNOFF FROM THE MOUNTAINS MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL FLOODING. PYTLAK
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jul 25, 9:30 AM MST, 2 hours 54 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 25, 9:30 AM MST, 2 hours 54 minutes before
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 930 AM MST SUN JUL 25 1999 SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SHIFTING WESTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO NEAR THE 4 CORNERS AREA BY MONDAY. REMAINS OF THE EASTERLY WAVE THAT PUSHED THROUGH YESTERDAY NOW EXTENDS FROM EXTREME SOUTHWEST ARIZONA NORTHEAST TO 4 CORNERS AREA. SOUTHEAST ARIZONA HAS CLEARED OUT CONSIDERABLY THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAYS ACTIVITY. SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS SOME DRIER AIR MOVING SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY. THIS CONSISTENT WITH THE LITTLE CONVECTION THIS AREA RECEIVED YESTERDAY. THUS LIKELY SEE EVEN LESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EASTERN SECTIONS TODAY. LIKELY SEE SOME INCREASE IN STORM ACTIVITY MONDAY AS UPPER HIGH GETS CLOSER AND LIKLY SMALL INCREASE IN MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM EAST. DISCUSSION...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA STARTING OUT THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SHOULD SEE FAIRLY RAPID HEATING HEATING. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ALREADY FORMING NEAR MOUNTAINS. ONCE TEMPERATURE GETS PAST MID 80S IT WILL BE SLOW GOING AS CONVECTIVE CLOUDS INCREASE. WINDS ALOFT CHANGED CONSIDERABLY FROM YESTERDAY. THE LIGHT WINDS OF YESTERDAY ARE NOW MODERATE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ABOVE 30K FEET. THESE WINDS WILL HELP TO PUT A CIRUS CAP OVER THE DESERTS FROM STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF EXTREME SOUTHERN ARIZONA. BOTTOM LINE FOR TODAY IS FEWER STORMS. STILL EXPECT SOME OF THE STORMS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO DROP IN EXCESS OF AN INCH/HOUR BUT NOT NEARLY AS MANY OF THEM AS YESTERDAY. LONGER TERM EXPECT AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY MORE LIKELY TUESDAY THAN MONDAY. MONDAY COULD SEE AN INCREASE FROM TODAY BUT TUESDAY MAY BE EVEN STRONGER AS 4 CORNERS HIGH GETS MORE ESTABLISHED OPENING UP THE WAY FOR ANOTHER EASTERLY WAVE. BEYOND THAT NO TREND EXCEPT THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN. SO SOME DAYS WILL BE MORE ACTIVE THAN OTHERS BUT SOUTHERN ARIZONA WILL LIKELY SEE THUNDERSTORMS EVERY DAY THROUGH THIS WEEK. PRF .TWC...NONE.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jul 25, 11:20 AM MST, 1 hour 4 minutes before
AZZ019-029>035-260500-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1120 AM MST SUN JUL 25 1999...THIS PRODUCT IS NOT UPDATED
*CONDITIONAL* *CONDITIONAL*
COUNTY AREAL PROBABILITY RAIN GREATER THAN STORM
COVERAGE OF SEVERE 1.00 2.00 MOTION
COCHISE 35 20 20 10 NNW12
GRAHAM 35 20 25 10 NNW12
GREENLEE 40 20 30 15 NNW12
TUCSON/ERN PIMA 30 30 25 10 NNW15
TOHONO O'ODHAM 25 35 20 10 N15
SOUTHEAST PINAL 25 35 25 10 N15
WESTERN PIMA 20 40 20 10 N15
SANTA CRUZ 35 20 35 15 NNW12
SYNOPSIS...THE ATMOPSPHERE IS JUST AS MOIST AND EVEN MORE
UNSTABLE THAN YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...LIKE YESTERDAY THERE IS NO
DISTURBANCE TO FOCUS DEVELOPMENT. WIND FIELDS ARE A LITTLE
STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY WHICH REDUCES THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN
BUT INCREASES THE CHANCE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT SHOULD CAUSE THUNDERSTORM ANVILS TO SPREAD
OUT AND SUPPRESS STORM COVERAGE IN THE VALLEYS SOMEWHAT. THE
STORMS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET DUE TO THE LACK OF
ORGANIZATION.
*****************************************************************
KEY...
AREAL COVERAGE - PERCENT OF COUNTY OR AREA THAT WILL EXPERIENCE
THUNDERSTORMS
PROB OF SEVERE - THE PROBABILITY THAT AN INDIVIDUAL STORM WILL
REACH SEVERE LEVELS (DAMAGING WIND AND/OR
LARGE HAIL)
RAIN GRTR THAN - THE PROBABILITY THAT AN INDIVIDUAL STORM WILL
PRODUCE RAIN EXCEEDING 1 INCH OR 2 INCHES IN
ANY LOCATION
STORM MOTION - GENERAL DIRECTION TO WHICH THE STORMS WILL
LIKELY MOVE AND SPEED IN MPH
NOTE...
VALID TIME IS FROM 12:45 PM TO 12 MIDNIGHT OF THE DAY OF ISSUANCE.
THIS PRODUCT IS NOT TO BE USED IN PLACE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS OR WATCHES. THIS PRODUCT IS ONLY USED FOR
OUTLOOK PURPOSES. CORRESPONDING GRAPHICS MAY BE FOUND ON THE NWS
TUCSON INTERNET PAGE AT
HTTP://NIMBO.WRH.NOAA.GOV/TUCSON/SWO/SWO.SHTML
END/PYTLAK
CORRECTED TO ADD STORM MOTIONThe office that day
Everything else NWS Tucson, AZ issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 25, 1:18 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | TWC | Cochise | 67 min |
| Jul 25, 1:27 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TWC | Pima | 33 min |
Nearby
Flash Flood Warnings in Arizona, 1999Every flash flood warning in 1999
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.