Alert archive / Arizona / Flash Flood Warnings in 1999
Flash Flood Warning 18, NWS Tucson, AZ
NWS Tucson, AZ issued this flash flood warning at Jul 23, 1999, 6:34 PM MST for Cochise County, Arizona. It was in force for 86 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline the Iowa Environmental Mesonet reconstructed for it; the warning itself named whole counties.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 23, 1999, 6:34 PM MST (01:34 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 23, 1999, 8:00 PM MST
- In force
- 86 min
- Issued by
- NWS Tucson, AZ
- Area
- Whole counties; the outline is the Mesonet’s reconstruction
County Cochise County, AZ
The radar
The Tucson radar (KEMX), 141 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:38 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Tuscon, AZ (KTUS), launched 00:00Z, 1.6 hours before the alert went out and 161 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 157 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -147 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1387 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 20 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 31 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 63 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 TTAA00 KTWC 240134 FFWTUS AZC003-240300- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 634 PM MST FRI JUL 23 1999 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TUCSON HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN COCHISE COUNTY IN ARIZONA * UNTIL 800 PM MST * AT 623 PM MST...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER NORTHEASTERN COCHISE COUNTY AROUND THE SAN SIMON AREA AND ALONG INTERSTATE 10 FROM SAN SIMON TO THE ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO STATE LINE. EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS...STREAMS...AND PARTS OF INTERSTATE 10. ADDITIONALLY... COUNTRY ROADS AND LOW LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLASH FLOODING. NOTE...THIS FLASH FLOOD WARNING REPLACES THE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY ISSUED EARLIER THIS EVENING. LAT...LON 3240 10910 3209 10905 3209 10936 3232 10936
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jul 23, 2:18 PM MST, 4 hours 16 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 23, 2:18 PM MST, 4 hours 16 minutes before
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 218 PM MST FRI JUL 23 1999 SYNOPSIS...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING WEST ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO IGNITE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...SOME OF WHICH WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. AS THIS TROUGH GRADUALLY DISSIPATES ON SATURDAY...RAINFALL WILL BECOME MORE SPOTTY. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF MONSOON MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE...AND WITH A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPING OVER THE FOUR-CORNERS BY MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK. DISCUSSION...AS SOON AS WE HIT OUR CONVECTIVE TEMP, THINGS EXPLODED ALONG THE SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM N CENTRAL NM INTO SE AZ. THE MAJORITY OF THE CELLS ARE STILL ELEVATED, BUT THAT WONT LAST LONG BASED ON THE TOWERING CU FORMING OVER THE TUCSON VALLEY AND TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S. HAVE ALREADY HAD MOUNTAIN-HUGGERS DUMP 2-3 RAINS ACCORDING TO DOPPLER ESTMATES. COMPARING WEAKER CELLS TO OUR ALERT GAGES, THOSE ESTIMATES ARE PROBABLY CLOSE. DONT LIKE THE -65C TOPS ORGANIZING ON THE RIM AND DRIFTING SW INTO INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR. COULD SEE AN ISOLATED CELL OR TWO GIVEN CAPES AROUND 2000J/KG, BUT WITHOUT MUCH ADDITIONAL HEATING TO DRY OUT AND COMPLETELY MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER, THINK ANY OCCURRENCE WILL BE ISOLATED. WITH BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THE 00Z-06Z TIME FRAME, FLASH FLOOD WATCH WE ISSUED JUST AFTER 100PM WILL RUN A LITTLE LATER THAN USUAL. THE PAST 2 NIGHTS HAVE FEATURED SOME PATCHY BUT RATHER DENSE FOG IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS. CANT SEE WHY WE WONT HAVE A REPEAT TONIGHT AFTER THIS EVENINGS RAIN. WISH I COULD NAIL DOWN AN ISOLATED VERSUS SCATTERED DAY EITHER TOMORROW OR SUNDAY, BUT EVEN THE DRIEST AVN KEEP THE EASTERN CWA IN THE SOUP. THINK THAT THE VERY WET NGM, THOUGH, IS A LITTLE TOO WET WITH AT LEAST A LITTLE DRIER SW FLOW BEING CARRIED INTO NW AZ AS THE SHORT WAVE OFF THE SW OREGON COAST LIFTS INLAND. ASSUMING A BIG EVENING, WE SHOULD HAVE A DOWN DAY TOMORROW GIVEN OUR WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW. SUNDAY COULD BE EVEN MORE DOWN, BUT ALL MODELS REFORM THE 4-CORNER HIGH DURING THE DAY AND SWITCH OUR FLOW BACK TO THE SE IN THE 500-300MB LAYER. THUS IM FORCED INTO A SCATTERED-AD INFINITUM FORECAST. TEMPS ARE TOUGH WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS POSSIBLY SETTING US BACK ON HIGHS. WELL GO A HAIR WARMER ON SUNDAY ASSUMING A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS, BUT STILL WELL BELOW THE NGM/FAN NUMBERS. MOST MODELS AGREE THAT 4-CORNER HIGH WILL BE WITH US MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. WELL HAVE TO WATCH THE NEXT LOW OFF THE ALEUTIANS, WHICH A COUPLE OF SOLUTIONS BRING ROBUSTLY INTO THE WEST COAST. THAT WOULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND DOWNSHIFT THE MONSOON, AT LEAST A LITTLE. PYTLAK .TWC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1000 PM ZONES 19/ERN 29/30/33/34/35.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jul 23, 1:19 PM MST, 5 hours 15 minutes before
PHXSPSTUS
TTAA00 KTUS DDHHMM
AZZ019-029>035-240500-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1245 PM MST FRI JUL 23 1999...THIS PRODUCT IS NOT UPDATED
*CONDITIONAL* *CONDITIONAL*
COUNTY AREAL PROBABILITY RAIN GREATER THAN STORM
COVERAGE OF SEVERE 1.00 2.00 MOTION
COCHISE 65 25 95 30 WNW10
GRAHAM 65 25 90 30 WNW10
GREENLEE 65 15 65 25 WNW10
TUCSON/ERN PIMA 60 25 85 30 W10
TOHONO OODHAM 45 20 50 20 SW10
SOUTHEAST PINAL 55 20 70 30 W10
WESTERN PIMA 25 10 25 5 SW10
SANTA CRUZ 65 30 90 30 W10
SYNOPSIS...VERY MOIST AIR MASS OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING NORTH INTO ARIZONA ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER AT NOON
WILL MOVE WEST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. MORNING CLOUDS OVER NEARLY ALL
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA DELAYING STRONG CONVECTION. CLEARING FROM EAST TO
WEST AS THE INVERTED TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WILL ALLOW STRONGER STORMS
TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. STRONGEST STORMS
WITH HEAVIEST RAIN LIKELY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
*****************************************************************
KEY...
AREAL COVERAGE - PERCENT OF COUNTY OR AREA THAT WILL EXPERIENCE
THUNDERSTORMS
PROB OF SEVERE - THE PROBABILITY THAT AN INDIVIDUAL STORM WILL
REACH SEVERE LEVELS (DAMAGING WIND AND/OR
LARGE HAIL)
RAIN GRTR THAN - THE PROBABILITY THAT AN INDIVIDUAL STORM WILL
PRODUCE RAIN EXCEEDING 1 INCH OR 2 INCHES IN
ANY LOCATION
STORM MOTION - GENERAL DIRECTION TO WHICH THE STORMS WILL
LIKELY MOVE AND SPEED IN MPH
NOTE...
VALID TIME IS FROM 12:45 PM TO 12 MIDNIGHT OF THE DAY OF ISSUANCE.
THIS PRODUCT IS NOT TO BE USED IN PLACE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS OR WATCHES. THIS PRODUCT IS ONLY USED FOR
OUTLOOK PURPOSES. CORRESPONDING GRAPHICS MAY BE FOUND ON THE NWS
TUCSON INTERNET PAGE AT
HTTP://NIMBO.WRH.NOAA.GOV/TUCSON/SWO/SWO.SHTML
END/Special weather statement, Jul 23, 1:19 PM MST, 5 hours 15 minutes before
PHXSPSTUS
TTAA00 KTUS DDHHMM
AZZ019-029>035-240500-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1245 PM MST FRI JUL 23 1999...THIS PRODUCT IS NOT UPDATED
*CONDITIONAL* *CONDITIONAL*
COUNTY AREAL PROBABILITY RAIN GREATER THAN STORM
COVERAGE OF SEVERE 1.00 2.00 MOTION
COCHISE 65 25 95 30 WNW10
GRAHAM 65 25 90 30 WNW10
GREENLEE 65 15 65 25 WNW10
TUCSON/ERN PIMA 60 25 85 30 W10
TOHONO OODHAM 45 20 50 20 SW10
SOUTHEAST PINAL 55 20 70 30 W10
WESTERN PIMA 25 10 25 5 SW10
SANTA CRUZ 65 30 90 30 W10
SYNOPSIS...VERY MOIST AIR MASS OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING NORTH INTO ARIZONA ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER AT NOON
WILL MOVE WEST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. MORNING CLOUDS OVER NEARLY ALL
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA DELAYING STRONG CONVECTION. CLEARING FROM EAST TO
WEST AS THE INVERTED TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WILL ALLOW STRONGER STORMS
TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. STRONGEST STORMS
WITH HEAVIEST RAIN LIKELY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
*****************************************************************
KEY...
AREAL COVERAGE - PERCENT OF COUNTY OR AREA THAT WILL EXPERIENCE
THUNDERSTORMS
PROB OF SEVERE - THE PROBABILITY THAT AN INDIVIDUAL STORM WILL
REACH SEVERE LEVELS (DAMAGING WIND AND/OR
LARGE HAIL)
RAIN GRTR THAN - THE PROBABILITY THAT AN INDIVIDUAL STORM WILL
PRODUCE RAIN EXCEEDING 1 INCH OR 2 INCHES IN
ANY LOCATION
STORM MOTION - GENERAL DIRECTION TO WHICH THE STORMS WILL
LIKELY MOVE AND SPEED IN MPH
NOTE...
VALID TIME IS FROM 12:45 PM TO 12 MIDNIGHT OF THE DAY OF ISSUANCE.
THIS PRODUCT IS NOT TO BE USED IN PLACE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS OR WATCHES. THIS PRODUCT IS ONLY USED FOR
OUTLOOK PURPOSES. CORRESPONDING GRAPHICS MAY BE FOUND ON THE NWS
TUCSON INTERNET PAGE AT
HTTP://NIMBO.WRH.NOAA.GOV/TUCSON/SWO/SWO.SHTML
END/The office that day
Everything else NWS Tucson, AZ issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 24, 3:45 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TWC | Pima | 45 min |
| Jul 24, 4:09 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | TWC | Pima | 81 min |
Nearby
Flash Flood Warnings in Arizona, 1999Every flash flood warning in 1999
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.