Alert archive / Arizona / Flash Flood Warnings in 1999

Flash Flood Warning 16, NWS Tucson, AZ

July 16, 1999Cochise County, Arizona

NWS Tucson, AZ issued this flash flood warning at Jul 16, 1999, 12:05 PM MST for Cochise County, Arizona. It was in force for 60 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Jul 16, 1999, 12:05 PM MST (19:05 UTC)
Expired: Jul 16, 1999, 1:05 PM MST
In force: 60 min
Issued by: NWS Tucson, AZ
Area: Whole counties

County Cochise County, AZ

The radar

The Tucson radar (KEMX), 83 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:06 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Tuscon, AZ (KTUS), launched 12:00Z, 7.1 hours before the alert went out and 113 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 44 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -122 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1574 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 13 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 51 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 50 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
TTAA00 KTUS 161904
FFWTUS
AZC003-162005-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1205 PM MST FRI JUL 16 1999

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TUCSON HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHWESTERN COCHISE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA
  STATE HIGHWAY 92

* UNTIL 105 PM MST

* AT 1200 PM MST... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
  A THUNDERSTORM WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN 10 MILES SOUTH OF SIERRA VISTA
  OVER THE HUACHUCA MOUNTAINS... MOVING SLOWLY EAST.

* DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN
  ACROSS THE HUACHUCA MOUNTAINS SINCE 11 AM. RUNOFF FROM THESE
  STORMS WILL QUICKLY FILL WASHES AND ROADWAY DIPS.

RASMUSSEN

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jul 16, 9:20 AM MST, 2 hours 45 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 16, 9:20 AM MST, 2 hours 45 minutes before

SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
920 AM MST FRI JUL 16 1999

SYNOPSIS...DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY FEED IN FROM THE WEST THIS WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO WILL
MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY ONCE AGAIN IGNITE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ONCE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST
ON SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED. A
SLIGHTLY WETTER MONSOON PATTERN WILL REDEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK...
ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD NOT BE AS ACTIVE AS THE PAST TWO WEEKS.

DISCUSSION...MODELS WERE NOT TOO REVEALING THIS MORNING...BUT WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A WEAK SHORT WAVE APPROACHING NORTHERN BAJA
TODAY. MODELS DID PICK UP ON THE SHORT WAVE EXITING NORTHERN ARIZONA
THIS MORNING WITH SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE PROGGED BEHIND IT. HOWEVER...
WITH A MOIST AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE MORE THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. DEEPEST MOISTURE AND BEST
LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES TODAY FOR
SCATTERED STORMS THERE. SHOULD SEE LESS ACTIVITY THAN YESTERDAY
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES. OTHERWISE...WARMER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY OVER THE RAIN COOLED READINGS WE
EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY. CURRENT FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR A DECREASE
IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS WEEKEND WITH A MORE FAVORABLE FLOW
PATTERN SETTING UP EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW...SO NO
UPDATES EXPECTED THIS MORNING. JD

.TWC...NONE.

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Arizona, 1999 Every flash flood warning in 1999

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.