Alert archive / Arizona / Flash Flood Warnings in 1999

Flash Flood Warning 12, NWS Tucson, AZ

July 13, 1999Pima County, Arizona

NWS Tucson, AZ issued this flash flood warning at Jul 13, 1999, 9:18 PM MST for Pima County, Arizona. It was in force for 92 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Jul 13, 1999, 9:18 PM MST (04:18 UTC)
Expired
Jul 13, 1999, 10:50 PM MST
In force
92 min
Issued by
NWS Tucson, AZ
Area
Whole counties

County Pima County, AZ

The radar

The Tucson radar (KEMX), 112 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:18 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Tuscon, AZ (KTUS), launched 00:00Z, 4.3 hours before the alert went out and 84 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Tuscon, AZ at 00:00Z on 1999-07-14Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 117 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Tuscon, AZ at 00:00Z on 1999-07-14The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 116 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
117 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-80 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
2701 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
12 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
116 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
148 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
TTAA00 KTUS 140413
FFWTUS
AZC019-140550-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
918 PM MST TUE JUL 13 1999

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TUCSON HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  EASTERN PIMA COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ARIZONA
  INCLUDING METROPOLITAN TUCSON.

* UNTIL 1050 PM MST

* AT 915 PM MST... RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES AND RAIN GAGES INDICATED
  A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN FROM EAST TUCSON
 < NORTHWARD INTO THE CATALINAS....MOVING SLOWLY NORTH..

* RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES IN 1 HOUR ARE OCCURRING
  WITH THIS STORM AND FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY.

WJM

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jul 13, 2:30 PM MST, 6 hours 48 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 13, 2:30 PM MST, 6 hours 48 minutes before
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
230 PM MST TUE JUL 13 1999

SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS
WEEK GENERATING SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.

DISCUSSION...SLOW START FOR STORMS IN FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA BUT
BEGINNING TO BUILD NEAR SELLS NOW AND ALONG MEXICAN BORDER BY
NOGALES. OTHER STORMS HAVE BUILT UNDER COLD AIR POOL THAT WEDGED
INTO FAR EASTERN PART OF STATE. STILL DONT SEE MUCH POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN IN GRAHAM OR GREENLEE COUNTIES AND STORMS SO FAR HAVE
PROVED THIS POINT. NOW THE ONLY QUESTION IS HOW WELL ORGANIZED
STORMS GET IN WATCH AREA. WITH TEMPS IN MID 90S TO NEAR 100 MOST
AREAS THERE IS PLENTY OF CAPE TO GO AROUND.

FIGURING A GOOD DAY WOULD FORECAST DOWN DAY TOMORROW BUT MODELS
THROW IN DYNAMICS IN THE MIX AS TROF OUT BY VEGAS IS PUSHED EAST IN
ADVANCE OF MAJOR TROF DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN STATES. BELIEVE THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE TO KEEP SOME STORMS GOING
OVERNIGHT IN WESTERN ZONES THEN DYNAMICS SHIFT  A LITTLE FARTHER
EAST ON WEDNESDAY. SO WILL KEEP MIDDLE OF THE ROAD MONSOON FORECAST.
MRF WANTS TO DRY US OUT FOR THE WEEKEND BUT A LITTLE SUSPICIOUS AND
WILL HOLD ON TO SCATTERED POPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. STILL IT WILL
BE A DIFFERENT TYPE OF MONSOON PATTERN WE ARE IN FOR NEXT WEEK.

.TWC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH ZONES 029-031>034 AND WESTERN PORTION OF 035
TIL 03Z.

HOLBROOK

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tucson, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 13, 8:11 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTWCPima, Santa Cruz49 min
Jul 13, 9:05 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTWCPima45 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Arizona, 1999Every flash flood warning in 1999

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.