Alert archive / Arizona / Flash Flood Warnings in 1999
Flash Flood Warning 11, NWS Tucson, AZ
NWS Tucson, AZ issued this flash flood warning at Jul 10, 1999, 2:53 PM MST for Pima County, Arizona. It was in force for 67 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 10, 1999, 2:53 PM MST (21:53 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 10, 1999, 4:00 PM MST
- In force
- 67 min
- Issued by
- NWS Tucson, AZ
- Area
- Whole counties
County Pima County, AZ
The radar
The Tucson radar (KEMX), 112 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:54 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Tuscon, AZ (KTUS), launched 12:00Z, 9.9 hours before the alert went out and 84 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 168 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -159 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1549 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 9 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 47 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 69 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 TTAA00 KTWC 102155 COR FFWTUS AZC019-102300- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 253 PM MST SAT JUL 10 1999 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TUCSON HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN PIMA COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ARIZONA INCLUDING NORTHWEST TUCSON...ORO VALLEY...AND CATALINA. * UNTIL 400 PM MST * AT 250 PM... RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES AND SPOTTER REPORTS INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE NORTHWEST SUBURBS OF TUCSON...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH. * A SPOTTER REPORTED 2.00 INCHES OF RAIN IN ONLY 20 MINUTES ON THE CORNER OF MAGEE AND LA CANADA ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF TUCSON. FLASH FLOODING IS IMMINENT IN TH IS AREA. NEVER DRIVE INTO A FLOODED ROADWAY. MOVE AWAY FROM WASHES AND STREAMS IMMEDIATELY. PYTLAK
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jul 10, 2:15 PM MST, 38 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 10, 2:15 PM MST, 38 minutes before
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 215 PM MST SAT JUL 10 1999 SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND WILL PROVIDE SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WITH AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN... INCLUDING THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THE HIGH CENTER IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO OR NORTH TEXAS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK...WHICH STILL FAVORS THE CONTINUED THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AS EXPECTED FROM TUCSON EASTWARD IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER WAS IN PROGRESS IN THE TUCSON METRO AREA AT THE TIME OF THIS DISCUSSION. SEEING THE TOPS OF THESE STORMS IN EXCESS OF 50 KFT WITH RATHER HEAVY RAINFALL RATES (UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR). THE MORNING MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOCUSING ON THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FOR A WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAK. WE ARE WELL ON OUR WAY TO VERIFYING THAT FORECAST. IN ADDITION...THERE WAS ANOTHER LINE OF STORMS FORMING IN EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY/SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA LATER THIS EVENING. THE 850 AND 700 THETA E RIDGES OVERLAP AND MOVE OVER THE HEART OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TONIGHT. THIS VERY MOIST AIRMASS COMBINED WITH A SLOW MOVEMENT TO THE WEST WILL BRING A THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING TO MOST OF THE CWA THROUGH 8 PM. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS ALREADY IN PLACE. THE THETA E RIDGE MOVES INTO WESTERN ARIZONA SUNDAY...SHIFTING THE FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAINLY TO THE WEST OF TUCSON. AS OFTEN IS THE CASE...DEBRIS CLOUD COVERAGE WILL DETERMINE WHERE AND HOW FAST WE SEE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON DAY 2. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A DOWN DAY...PARTICULARLY EAST OF TUCSON AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE EAST PER 850/700 THETA E FORECASTS FROM THE AVN. THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS INTO NEW MEXICO OR NORTH TEXAS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROGS AND THE MID LEVEL STEERING FLOW REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A CONTINUED ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN. OKULSKI .TWC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM ZONES 29/30/32>35.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jul 10, 12:45 PM MST, 2 hours 8 minutes before
AZZ019-029>035-110500-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1245 PM MST SAT JUL 10 1999...THIS PRODUCT IS NOT UPDATED
*CONDITIONAL* *CONDITIONAL*
COUNTY AREAL PROBABILITY RAIN GREATER THAN STORM
COVERAGE OF SEVERE 1.00 2.00 MOTION
COCHISE 50 15 45 15 W 8
GRAHAM 45 15 45 15 W 8
GREENLEE 25 5 30 5 W 8
TUCSON/ERN PIMA 60 25 60 20 W 8
TOHONO OODHAM 40 30 45 10 W 8
SOUTHEAST PINAL 50 20 50 15 W 8
WESTERN PIMA 30 30 30 5 W 8
SANTA CRUZ 60 20 60 20 W 8
SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND THE AREA OF CONCERN WILL
BE FROM WESTERN COCHISE AND GRAHAM COUNTIES WESTWARD THROUGH THE
TUCSON METRO AREA TO SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY AND THE TOHONO OODHAM
NATION.
*****************************************************************
KEY...
AREAL COVERAGE - PERCENT OF COUNTY OR AREA THAT WILL EXPERIENCE
THUNDERSTORMS
PROB OF SEVERE - THE PROBABILITY THAT AN INDIVIDUAL STORM WILL
REACH SEVERE LEVELS (DAMAGING WIND AND/OR
LARGE HAIL)
RAIN GRTR THAN - THE PROBABILITY THAT AN INDIVIDUAL STORM WILL
PRODUCE RAIN EXCEEDING 1 INCH OR 2 INCHES IN
ANY LOCATION
STORM MOTION - GENERAL DIRECTION TO WHICH THE STORMS WILL
LIKELY MOVE AND SPEED IN MPH
NOTE...
VALID TIME IS FROM 12:45 PM TO 12 MIDNIGHT OF THE DAY OF ISSUANCE.
THIS PRODUCT IS NOT TO BE USED IN PLACE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS OR WATCHES. THIS PRODUCT IS ONLY USED FOR
OUTLOOK PURPOSES. CORRESPONDING GRAPHICS MAY BE FOUND ON THE NWS
TUCSON INTERNET PAGE AT
HTTP://NIMBO.WRH.NOAA.GOV/TUCSON/SWO/SWO.SHTML
END/OKULSKISpecial weather statement, Jul 10, 12:45 PM MST, 2 hours 8 minutes before
AZZ019-029>035-110500-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1245 PM MST SAT JUL 10 1999...THIS PRODUCT IS NOT UPDATED
*CONDITIONAL* *CONDITIONAL*
COUNTY AREAL PROBABILITY RAIN GREATER THAN STORM
COVERAGE OF SEVERE 1.00 2.00 MOTION
COCHISE 50 15 45 15 W 8
GRAHAM 45 15 45 15 W 8
GREENLEE 25 5 30 5 W 8
TUCSON/ERN PIMA 60 25 60 20 W 8
TOHONO OODHAM 40 30 45 10 W 8
SOUTHEAST PINAL 50 20 50 15 W 8
WESTERN PIMA 30 30 30 5 W 8
SANTA CRUZ 60 20 60 20 W 8
SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND THE AREA OF CONCERN WILL
BE FROM WESTERN COCHISE AND GRAHAM COUNTIES WESTWARD THROUGH THE
TUCSON METRO AREA TO SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY AND THE TOHONO OODHAM
NATION.
*****************************************************************
KEY...
AREAL COVERAGE - PERCENT OF COUNTY OR AREA THAT WILL EXPERIENCE
THUNDERSTORMS
PROB OF SEVERE - THE PROBABILITY THAT AN INDIVIDUAL STORM WILL
REACH SEVERE LEVELS (DAMAGING WIND AND/OR
LARGE HAIL)
RAIN GRTR THAN - THE PROBABILITY THAT AN INDIVIDUAL STORM WILL
PRODUCE RAIN EXCEEDING 1 INCH OR 2 INCHES IN
ANY LOCATION
STORM MOTION - GENERAL DIRECTION TO WHICH THE STORMS WILL
LIKELY MOVE AND SPEED IN MPH
NOTE...
VALID TIME IS FROM 12:45 PM TO 12 MIDNIGHT OF THE DAY OF ISSUANCE.
THIS PRODUCT IS NOT TO BE USED IN PLACE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS OR WATCHES. THIS PRODUCT IS ONLY USED FOR
OUTLOOK PURPOSES. CORRESPONDING GRAPHICS MAY BE FOUND ON THE NWS
TUCSON INTERNET PAGE AT
HTTP://NIMBO.WRH.NOAA.GOV/TUCSON/SWO/SWO.SHTML
END/OKULSKILocal storm report, Jul 10, 2:20 PM MST, 33 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
220 PM MST SAT JUL 10 1999
TIME(CDT) .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE ...EVENT/REMARKS...
....COUNTY LOCATION....
0215 PM TUCSON AZ 64 MPH TSTM GUST
07/10/99 PIMA UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA
CAMPUSLocal storm report, Jul 10, 2:20 PM MST, 33 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
220 PM MST SAT JUL 10 1999
TIME(CDT) .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE ...EVENT/REMARKS...
....COUNTY LOCATION....
0215 PM TUCSON AZ 64 MPH TSTM GUST
07/10/99 PIMA UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA
CAMPUSThe office that day
Everything else NWS Tucson, AZ issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 9, 6:21 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | TWC | Cochise | 89 min |
| Jul 10, 1:33 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TWC | Pima | 47 min |
| Jul 10, 2:13 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TWC | Pima | 47 min |
Nearby
Flash Flood Warnings in Arizona, 1999Every flash flood warning in 1999
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.