Severe Thunderstorm Warning 574, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
252 PM CST FRI DEC 3 1999

LOTS OF QUESTIONS AND NOT MANY ANSWERS FOR THIS FORECAST.  MAIN
CULPRIT FOR CONCERN IS UPPER LOW SEEN SPINNING AWAY OVER NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO IN WATOR VAPOR IMAGERY.  MODELS ALL SIMILAR IN BRINGING
SYSTEM OUT TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT BUT PLACEMENT AND EXACT
TIMING IS SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT.  THE NGM IS THE FURTHEST NORTH AND
WEST IN TAKING THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TIP OF OKLAHOMA
TOMORROW AND THEN INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY 12Z SUNDAY.  THE ETA IS THE
FURTHEST SOUTH IN TAKING IT DIRECTLY OVER OKLAHOMA.  THE AVN IS
SOMEWHAT A COMPROMISE IN POSITION BUT QUICKER IN TIMING BRINGING IT
INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY 00Z SUN AND THEN INTO EASTERN KANSAS BY 12Z
SUNDAY.  GIVEN CURRENT PLACEMENT OF UPPER LOW AND TRACK RECORD WITH
THE LAST SYSTEM HAVE DECIDED TO FOLLOW ALONG WITH THE AVN.

EXPECT TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH GREATEST
CONCENTRATION AND BEST CHANCE OF RAIN COMING TOMORROW MORNING.  DRY
SLOTTING WILL CUT OFF THE RAIN IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND THEN IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TOWARD EVENING.  COPIOUS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS WITH THE RAIN LATE
TONIGHT AND THEY SHOULD STICK AROUND INTO SUNDAY.  THUS...NO MATTER
WHAT THE SURFACE FRONT DOES WILL NOT HAVE A BIG DIURNAL RANGE IN
TEMPS TOMORROW.  SIGNIFICANT COOLING TAKES PLACE AT 8H TOMORROW
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.  SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE AN EYE OPENER GIVEN WHAT WE
HAVE BECOME ACCUSTOMED TO THIS FALL.  HAVE BECOME AWARE OF THE
POSSIBILITY OF SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY BUT DO NOT BY INTO THIS.  FIRST
OF ALL THINK PRECIP WILL GENERALLY BE OVER BY THEN GIVEN THAT THE
AVN HAS THE UPPER LOW MOVING FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO MISSOURI
SUNDAY.  SECOND THINK SC DECK WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY.  THIRD THINK
SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO MELT SNOW BEFORE IT HITS THE
GROUND.

AFTER SUNDAY THINGS ARE LOOKING QUIET.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THEN SHIFTS EAST FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY SETTING UP A RETURN FLOW.  IF IT CLEARS LIKE I THINK IT
WILL WILL HAVE A HARD FREEZE SUNDAY NIGHT AND A COOL DAY MONDAY.
WARMING SHOULD START TUESDAY.

FCSTID = 17
TUL   50  58  42  47 /  60  80  30  20
FSM   54  62  45  50 /  60  80  30   0
MLC   55  62  45  50 /  60  80  20   0
BVO   48  55  39  43 /  60  80  30  20
FYV   55  62  45  50 /  60  80  30  20
BYV   55  62  45  50 /  60  80  30  20
MIO   50  58  42  48 /  60  80  30  20
MKO   50  58  42  47 /  60  80  30  20
F10   50  58  42  47 /  60  80  30  20
HHW   58  65  48  53 /  60  80  20   0

.TUL...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

ABBAS