Severe Thunderstorm Warning 470, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
335 PM CDT TUE SEP 7 1999

PROBLEM(S) OF THE DAY:
POPS
TEMPERATURES

RADAR...SAT PICS AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AT FORECAST TIME.  APPARENTLY THESE ARE DUE
TO STRONG HEATING...BROKEN CAP AND A SHORTWAVE DEPICTED BY BOTH THE
ETA AND NGM OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND EASTERN KANSAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  ALL IN ALL FWC'S 50 PERCENT POPS FOR TONIGHT
DO NOT LOOK BAD SO HAVE STUCK WITH THEM.  THIS AFTERNOON'S CONVECTION
MAY DIE DOWN THIS EVENING BUT THERE WILL A CHANCE FOR MORE WITH THE
WELL ADVERTISED FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THE MODELS HAVE THE SAME GENERAL IDEA WITH THE FRONT BUT DIFFER SOME
IN SPEED.  MOS WANTS WINDS TO SHIFT LATE TONIGHT AT KTUL WHILE
SURFACE WINDS FROM ETA AND AVN WOULD INDICATE A FRONTAL PASSAGE
SOMETIME DURING THE MORNING.  HAVE SIDED WITH THE ETA AND AVN BASED
ON THE DYNAMICS DRIVING THE FRONT BEING WELL TO THE NORTH OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST.   THINK POPS TOMORROW WILL BE BEST IN THE SOUTH WHERE
THE FRONT WILL PASS AFTER SOME DECENT HEATING OCCURS.  FRONT DOES NOT
QUITE CLEAR THE RED RIVER COUNTIES UNTIL TOMORROW EVENING SO WILL
CARRY SOME POPS THERE TOMORROW NIGHT.

QUESTION IS WHAT WILL TEMPS DO.  LOWEST 8H TEMPS OCCUR THURSDAY BUT
SHOULD HAVE FULL SUN THAT DAY. COULD HAVE SOME CLOUDINESS TOMORROW
DUE TO THE TSRA THREAT.  THUS...HAVE GONE FOR SIMILAR TO SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPS THURSDAY AS TOMORROW.  COOLEST TEMPERATURES NIGHTTIME
WISE WILL LIKELY OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT AS VERY DRY AIR FULLY SETTLES
IN OVER THE AREA AND WINDS BECOME CALM.  SHOULD SEE A WARMUP
BEGINNING FRIDAY AS THERMAL GRADIENT BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST.

THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS ANOTHER CHALLENGE.  BOTH THE ECWMF AND MRF
ARE SIMILAR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH A WAV FLATTENING THE
WESTERN RIDGE.  FROM THERE THEY DIVERGE.  THE MRF BRINGS THE WAVE
THROUGH KANSAS AND MISSOURI WITH LITTLE SURFACE REFLECTION.  THE
ECMWF CUTS OFF A LOW OVER MINNESOTA AND DRIVES A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.  IN STAYING THE COURSE OF THE MID SHIFTS
IDEAS AND KNOWING THE PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN HAVE LOOSELY FOLLOWED
THE ECMWF.  WILL KEEP WARMUP AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST WE HAVE FOR SATURDAY.  THEN WILL COOL
THINGS OFF SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY.

FCSTID = 17
TUL   70  85  58  85 /  50  30   0   0
FSM   70  88  58  85 /  50  50   0   0
MLC   70  87  60  86 /  50  50   0   0
BVO   66  83  56  85 /  50  20   0   0
FYV   63  83  53  82 /  50  30   0   0
BYV   62  84  52  83 /  50  30   0   0
MIO   65  83  55  83 /  50  30   0   0
MKO   69  85  57  85 /  50  30   0   0
F10   70  86  58  86 /  50  30   0   0
HHW   70  92  63  88 /  50  50  20   0

.TUL...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

--------------------
EXPERIMENTAL OUTPUT:

HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS: CHANCE SEVERE
THUNDERSTO@RMS
NGM CONFIDENCE:  7 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10
ETA CONFIDENCE:  8 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10
AVN CONFIDENCE:  7 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10
FCST CONFIDENCE: 8 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10

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