Severe Thunderstorm Warning 388, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
918 PM CDT TUE JUN 29 1999

LOW / MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE HAVE COMBINED
TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER
OF NE OKLAHOMA.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS BUT
OVERALL TRENDS IN THE MODEL FIELDS SUGGEST ACTIVITY WILL NOT TAKE
OFF INTO ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT AND MAY DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
THE ADVECTION PATTERN WEAKENS SOME WITH TIME.

CURRENT ACTIVITY IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SHOULD CONTINUE TO DROP
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ALONG THE LOW-LEVEL THETA-E AXIS AND FURTHER
INTO THE LOW-LEVEL JET.  IF THIS OCCURS THIS WILL LIKELY DISRUPT THE
LOW-LEVEL JET FUTHER NORTH AND BE A NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINS IN OUR FORECAST AREA.

OF MOST CONCERN IS ACTIVITY NOW RAPIDLY DEVELOPING IN SOUTHWEST
KANSAS.  AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THESE STORMS WILL BEGIN TO
ACCELERATE SOUTHEAST IN THE MODERATE MID-LEVEL FLOW AND THESE STORMS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AS THEY APPROACH
OUR FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z GIVEN THE CURRENT LAPSE RATES AND
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILE.  THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT SUGGESTS A LESSER THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAINS...BUT THIS IS AT LEAST PARTLY DEPENDANT THAT THE
DEVELOPING MCS IN NW TEXAS / SW OKLAHOMA INHIBITS THE LOW-LEVEL FEED
INTO THESE STORMS AND THAT THEIR MOVEMENT ISNT OVERLY INFLUENCED
RAPID DEVELOPMENT ON THEIR FLANK.

WILL UPDATE ZONES BEFORE 10PM TO TWEAK WORDING AND RAIN CHANCES...BUT
AT THIS TIME DO NOT PLAN A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND WILL ONLY MAKE
MINOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.

WILL LOWER POPS A LITTLE IN PARTS OF FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA PER SHV
FORECAST DISCUSSION.

/8

.TUL...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.