Severe Thunderstorm Warning 285, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
235 PM CDT SAT MAY 22 1999

NO DISCUSSION WILL BE WRITTEN THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO SEVERE WEATHER.

FCSTID = 11

.TUL...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-231100-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CDT SAT MAY 22 1999

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT IN
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WITH THE THREAT REACHING
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS NEAR DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING DISSIPATED.
HOWEVER...IT HAS LEFT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDED INTO EXTREME
NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS
TONIGHT BUT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA UNTIL SUNDAY.

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE VICINITY OF THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PULSE
TO SEVERE LIMITS...BUT NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.  MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN RAIN-FREE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
ORGANIZE INTO A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THIS EVENING AND MOVE SOUTH
SOUTHEAST ACROSS KANSAS INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST
REACHING SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AROUND SUNRISE
SUNDAY.

A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE STORMS
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. VERY FAVORABLE WIND
PROFILES WILL ALLOW SOME OF THE STORMS TO REMAIN SEVERE THROUGH THE
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ALTHOUGH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT
LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW OF THE STORMS.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY AND SPOTTER ACTIVATION...
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES AND STORM SPOTTER GROUPS IN OSAGE COUNTY
NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER SHOULD MONITOR THE PULSE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON.  OTHERWISE...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES AND STORM SPOTTER
GROUPS IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX AS IT MOVES SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD
THIS EVENING.  ACTIVATION MAY WELL BE NECESSARY AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-231100-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CDT SAT MAY 22 1999

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT IN
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WITH THE THREAT REACHING
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS NEAR DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING DISSIPATED.
HOWEVER...IT HAS LEFT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDED INTO EXTREME
NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS
TONIGHT BUT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA UNTIL SUNDAY.

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE VICINITY OF THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PULSE
TO SEVERE LIMITS...BUT NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.  MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN RAIN-FREE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
ORGANIZE INTO A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THIS EVENING AND MOVE SOUTH
SOUTHEAST ACROSS KANSAS INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST
REACHING SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AROUND SUNRISE
SUNDAY.

A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE STORMS
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. VERY FAVORABLE WIND
PROFILES WILL ALLOW SOME OF THE STORMS TO REMAIN SEVERE THROUGH THE
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ALTHOUGH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT
LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW OF THE STORMS.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY AND SPOTTER ACTIVATION...
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES AND STORM SPOTTER GROUPS IN OSAGE COUNTY
NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER SHOULD MONITOR THE PULSE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON.  OTHERWISE...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES AND STORM SPOTTER
GROUPS IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX AS IT MOVES SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD
THIS EVENING.  ACTIVATION MAY WELL BE NECESSARY AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
323 PM CDT SAT MAY 22 1999

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0215 PM    1 W SHIDLER               OK    1 INCH HAIL
05/22/99   OSAGE

0221 PM    DEWEY                     OK    1 INCH HAIL
05/22/99   WASHINGTON

0225 PM    SHIDLER                   OK    2.5 INCH HAIL
05/22/99   OSAGE

0322 PM    WYNONA                    OK    1.75 INCH HAIL
05/22/99   OSAGE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
323 PM CDT SAT MAY 22 1999

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0215 PM    1 W SHIDLER               OK    1 INCH HAIL
05/22/99   OSAGE

0221 PM    DEWEY                     OK    1 INCH HAIL
05/22/99   WASHINGTON

0225 PM    SHIDLER                   OK    2.5 INCH HAIL
05/22/99   OSAGE

0322 PM    WYNONA                    OK    1.75 INCH HAIL
05/22/99   OSAGE