Severe Thunderstorm Warning 199, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
330 PM CDT WED MAY 5 1999

PROBLEM(S) OF THE DAY:
POPS
WILL THERE BE SEVERE CONVECTION?

CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW NORTH OF THE AREA SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
IN THE MEANTIME...A COUPLE OF TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND IT WILL SWING
ACROSS THE AREA WITH VERY COLD AIR ALOFT AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DUE TO THE EXTREMELY COLD AIR ALOFT...SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL. THE EFFECTS OF THE
UPPER-LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY.

OTHERWISE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD
BE THE RULE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GUIDANCE
TONIGHT DUE TO STRONGER WINDS THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. A COMPROMISE
OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR LATER PERIODS.

THE MRF IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND MUCH QUICKER WITH THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM WHICH WOULD BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION BY
LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY.  HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO IS NOT VERY WELL
SUPPORTED BY OTHER AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.  THEREFORE WILL EXPECT THE
FORECAST AREA TO REMAIN BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND WILL KEEP EXTENDED FORECAST DRY.

FCSTID = 19
TUL   51  70  49  74 /  20  20  20  10
FSM   50  73  50  76 /  20  20  20  10
MLC   50  74  46  77 /  20  20  20  10
BVO   48  70  46  73 /  20  20  20  10
FYV   47  69  45  70 /  20  20  20  10
IDB   52  77  48  79 /  20  20  20  10
BYV   47  69  45  70 /  20  20  20  10
MIO   48  69  46  71 /  20  20  20  10
MKO   51  70  49  74 /  20  20  20  10
F10   51  70  49  74 /  20  20  20  10
HHW   52  77  48  79 /  20  20  20  10

.TUL...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

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EXPERIMENTAL OUTPUT:

HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS: CHANCE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
NGM CONFIDENCE:  8 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10
ETA CONFIDENCE:  7 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10
AVN CONFIDENCE:  8 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10
FCST CONFIDENCE: 8 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10