Alert archive / Oklahoma / Flash Flood Warnings in 1999

Flash Flood Warning 86, NWS Tulsa, OK

September 7, 1999Adair County, Cherokee County, Oklahoma

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this flash flood warning at Sep 7, 1999, 8:01 PM CDT for Adair County, Cherokee County, Oklahoma. It was in force for 119 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline the Iowa Environmental Mesonet reconstructed for it; the warning itself named whole counties.

The facts

Issued: Sep 7, 1999, 8:01 PM CDT (01:01 UTC)
Expired: Sep 7, 1999, 10:00 PM CDT
In force: 119 min
Issued by: NWS Tulsa, OK
Area: Whole counties; the outline is the Mesonet’s reconstruction

Counties Adair County, OK, Cherokee County, OK

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 1.0 hours before the alert went out and 132 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1500 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -29 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1775 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 27 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 47 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 70 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.1
Supercell composite: 2.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
TTAA00 KTUL 080103 RRA
FFWTUL
OKC001-021-080300-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
801 PM CDT TUE SEP 7 1999

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR
  NORTHEAST CHEROKEE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
  NORTHERN ADAIR COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

* UNTIL 1000 PM CDT

* AT 801 PM CDT RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN   
OVER NORTHERN ADAIR AND NORTHEAST CHEROKEE COUNTY ALONG HIGHWAY 10.  
THESE STORMS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.  RADAR ESTIMATES THAT 
BETWEEN 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER THE WARNED AREA. 
ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 
HEAVY RAINFALL INTO THE ILLINOIS RIVER COULD RESULT IN RAPID RISES.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODS AND FLASH FLOODS. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT
QUICKLY. MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY
IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS SAFELY.
VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED QUICKLY. MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT. IT IS
IMPORTANT TO KNOW WHERE YOU ARE RELATIVE TO STREAMS...RIVERS...OR
CREEKS WHICH CAN BECOME KILLERS IN HEAVY RAINS. CAMPERS SHOULD AVOID
CAMPING ALONG STREAMS OR CREEKS DURING THREATENING RAINS.

LAT...LON 3599 9496 3595 9488 3616 9461 3617 9478

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Sep 7, 3:35 PM CDT, 4 hours 26 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 7, 3:35 PM CDT, 4 hours 26 minutes before

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
335 PM CDT TUE SEP 7 1999

PROBLEM(S) OF THE DAY:
POPS
TEMPERATURES

RADAR...SAT PICS AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AT FORECAST TIME.  APPARENTLY THESE ARE DUE
TO STRONG HEATING...BROKEN CAP AND A SHORTWAVE DEPICTED BY BOTH THE
ETA AND NGM OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND EASTERN KANSAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  ALL IN ALL FWC'S 50 PERCENT POPS FOR TONIGHT
DO NOT LOOK BAD SO HAVE STUCK WITH THEM.  THIS AFTERNOON'S CONVECTION
MAY DIE DOWN THIS EVENING BUT THERE WILL A CHANCE FOR MORE WITH THE
WELL ADVERTISED FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THE MODELS HAVE THE SAME GENERAL IDEA WITH THE FRONT BUT DIFFER SOME
IN SPEED.  MOS WANTS WINDS TO SHIFT LATE TONIGHT AT KTUL WHILE
SURFACE WINDS FROM ETA AND AVN WOULD INDICATE A FRONTAL PASSAGE
SOMETIME DURING THE MORNING.  HAVE SIDED WITH THE ETA AND AVN BASED
ON THE DYNAMICS DRIVING THE FRONT BEING WELL TO THE NORTH OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST.   THINK POPS TOMORROW WILL BE BEST IN THE SOUTH WHERE
THE FRONT WILL PASS AFTER SOME DECENT HEATING OCCURS.  FRONT DOES NOT
QUITE CLEAR THE RED RIVER COUNTIES UNTIL TOMORROW EVENING SO WILL
CARRY SOME POPS THERE TOMORROW NIGHT.

QUESTION IS WHAT WILL TEMPS DO.  LOWEST 8H TEMPS OCCUR THURSDAY BUT
SHOULD HAVE FULL SUN THAT DAY. COULD HAVE SOME CLOUDINESS TOMORROW
DUE TO THE TSRA THREAT.  THUS...HAVE GONE FOR SIMILAR TO SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPS THURSDAY AS TOMORROW.  COOLEST TEMPERATURES NIGHTTIME
WISE WILL LIKELY OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT AS VERY DRY AIR FULLY SETTLES
IN OVER THE AREA AND WINDS BECOME CALM.  SHOULD SEE A WARMUP
BEGINNING FRIDAY AS THERMAL GRADIENT BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST.

THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS ANOTHER CHALLENGE.  BOTH THE ECWMF AND MRF
ARE SIMILAR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH A WAV FLATTENING THE
WESTERN RIDGE.  FROM THERE THEY DIVERGE.  THE MRF BRINGS THE WAVE
THROUGH KANSAS AND MISSOURI WITH LITTLE SURFACE REFLECTION.  THE
ECMWF CUTS OFF A LOW OVER MINNESOTA AND DRIVES A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.  IN STAYING THE COURSE OF THE MID SHIFTS
IDEAS AND KNOWING THE PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN HAVE LOOSELY FOLLOWED
THE ECMWF.  WILL KEEP WARMUP AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST WE HAVE FOR SATURDAY.  THEN WILL COOL
THINGS OFF SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY.

FCSTID = 17
TUL   70  85  58  85 /  50  30   0   0
FSM   70  88  58  85 /  50  50   0   0
MLC   70  87  60  86 /  50  50   0   0
BVO   66  83  56  85 /  50  20   0   0
FYV   63  83  53  82 /  50  30   0   0
BYV   62  84  52  83 /  50  30   0   0
MIO   65  83  55  83 /  50  30   0   0
MKO   69  85  57  85 /  50  30   0   0
F10   70  86  58  86 /  50  30   0   0
HHW   70  92  63  88 /  50  50  20   0

.TUL...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

--------------------
EXPERIMENTAL OUTPUT:

HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS: CHANCE SEVERE
THUNDERSTO@RMS
NGM CONFIDENCE:  7 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10
ETA CONFIDENCE:  8 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10
AVN CONFIDENCE:  7 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10
FCST CONFIDENCE: 8 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10

In the hours before

Local storm report, Sep 7, 6:59 PM CDT, 1 hour 2 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
659 PM CDT TUE SEP 07 1999

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0655 PM    VERA                      OK    60 MPH TSTM GUST
09/07/99   WASHINGTON

Local storm report, Sep 7, 6:59 PM CDT, 1 hour 2 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
659 PM CDT TUE SEP 07 1999

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0655 PM    VERA                      OK    60 MPH TSTM GUST
09/07/99   WASHINGTON

Local storm report, Sep 7, 7:10 PM CDT, 51 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
710 PM CDT TUE SEP 07 1999

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0700 PM    WELLING                   OK    1 INCH HAIL
09/07/99   CHEROKEE

Local storm report, Sep 7, 7:33 PM CDT, 28 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
733 PM CDT TUE SEP 07 1999

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0725 PM    PROCTOR                   OK    .75 INCH HAIL
09/07/99   ADAIR

Local storm report, Sep 7, 7:51 PM CDT, 10 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
751 PM CDT TUE SEP 07 1999

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0740 PM    4 W WEST SILOAM SPGS      OK    4.5 INCH HAIL
09/07/99   DELAWARE                        SOFTBALL SIZE HAIL
                                           REPORTED ALONG HIGHWAY
                                           412

Local storm report, Sep 7, 7:51 PM CDT, 10 minutes before

LSRTUL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTION...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
751 PM CDT TUE SEP 07 1999

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0740 PM    4 W WEST SILOAM SPGS      OK    1.75 INCH HAIL
09/07/99   DELAWARE                        GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL
                                           REPORTED ALONG HIGHWAY
                                           412

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tulsa, OK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Sep 7, 7:18 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Osage, Pawnee	42 min
Sep 7, 7:26 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Delaware	34 min
Sep 7, 7:34 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Rogers	41 min
Sep 7, 7:54 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Adair, Cherokee	51 min
Sep 7, 7:57 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Craig, Delaware, Mayes, Ottawa	48 min
Sep 7, 8:03 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Creek, Pawnee	42 min
Sep 7, 8:13 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	TSA	Creek	32 min
Sep 7, 8:32 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Delaware	43 min
Sep 7, 8:41 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Mayes	34 min
Sep 7, 8:45 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Creek, Okmulgee, Tulsa	45 min
Sep 7, 8:45 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Okfuskee	45 min
Sep 7, 9:57 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	McIntosh, Muskogee	48 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Oklahoma, 1999 Every flash flood warning in 1999

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.