Severe Thunderstorm Warning 97, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
340 PM CDT THU JUL 29 1999

...RELIEF FROM HEAT FINALLY IN SIGHT...

IN THE SHORT TERM...WIND PROFILER NETWORK SHOWS UPPER TROUGH FROM
EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO NERN KS ATTM WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING FOLLOWING
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN KS WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM
WYOMING INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE TRANSLATING
EAST OVER CWA THIS EVENING...DON'T SEE MUCH CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
UNTIL LATER IN THE NIGHT ACROSS CWA AS NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE IN
WY/CO TRANSLATES EAST INTO AREA AT SAME TIME SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE
MAKING ITS WAY INTO NORTH CENTRAL KS. NOCTURNAL LLJ ALSO INDICATED
TO PICK ACROSS AREA AND SHOULD AID IN FIRING THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN
THE NIGHT.

BEYOND TONIGHT...SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS CWA SATURDAY AND
SHIFT WINDS TO NORTHEAST. REAL FRONT...AS INDICATED BY 850 MB
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT/1000-500MB THICKNESS GRADIENT...OVER NORTH
DAKOTA AT THIS TIME...WILL SETTLE INTO AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH
TROUGH MOVING INTO AREA SATURDAY AND THEN THE FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT...EXPECT TO SEE MORE CLOUDS AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH MORE CLOUDS TOMORROW...AND POSSIBLY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL GO WITH GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES OF NEAR 90 IN
NORTH CENTRAL AND 90 TO 95 OVER REST OF CWA. BEST OVERALL CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTH CENTRAL ZONES...COMES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS FRONT PUSHES TO SOUTHERN KS. UPSLOPE
FLOW INTO WESTERN HIGH PLAINS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER FRONT WILL
LIKELY INITIATE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER WESTERN PLAINS WHICH WILL
TRANSLATE EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KS SATURDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY
EASTERN KS BY SUNDAY MORNING. WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S FOR SUNDAY AS SHOULD SEE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND COOLER
AIR FILTERING INTO AREA ON NORTHEAST WINDS AS FRONT SAGS INTO
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

.TOP...NONE

PB