Severe Thunderstorm Warning 92, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
323 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 1999

SHALLOW...NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY RUNNING FROM SOUTHWEST THROUGH
CENTRAL INTO EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.  WARM ADVECTION OVER THIS BOUNDARY
HAS LED TO TRAINING OF STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES
IN CWA AND FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NARROW BAND OF
RAINFALLS IN EXCESS OF 4 INCHES TODAY.  BOUNDARY NOT FORECAST TO
MOVE MUCH AND LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD FEED INTO BOUNDARY RESULTING IN
MORE HEAVY RAINS TONIGHT.  THUS, HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
TONIGHT FOR ENTIRE CWA.  TO THE SOUTH, CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE
BUT APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING WITH MID-LEVEL DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING
SOUTH OF ABILENE.  WITH PERSISTENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THIS
AREA, RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THIS EVENING.  SINCE
SURFACE BASED CAPES AT OR ABOVE 4000 J/KG TO THE SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY, SEVERE ALSO LIKELY.

BEYOND TONIGHT...MCS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS DURING MONDAY MORNING AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND WAVE AND DRYING
IN LOWER LAYERS ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT FINALLY PUSHING WELL TO THE
SOUTH, SHOULD LEAD TO DRY WEATHER FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.  UPSLOPE FLOW BEGINS SETTING UP AGAIN ON TUESDAY AND
DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER MCS COULD BE IN THE WORKS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

NGM LOOKS TOO DRY TONIGHT AND TOO WARM ON MONDAY GIVEN EXPECTED MCS
AND RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER.  BEYOND THAT NGM/AVN STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE SIMILAR AND FOLLOWED.

.TOP...FFA FOR MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL, NORTHEAST, AND EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

GDP