Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
242 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 1999

...MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...

IN THE SHORT TERM...MONITORING NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT.  MSAS LIFTED INDICES WERE -8 AT 19Z ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.  MOISTURE CONVERGENCE HAS BEEN SUSTAINED OVER THIS
AREA FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.  WOULD EXPECT STORMS TO FIRE
BETWEEN HILL CITY AND CONCORDIA WITHIN THE NEXT TWO HOURS.

FARTHER DOWN THE ROAD...WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW THE AVN AS BOTH THE
NGM AND ETA HAVE THEIR PROBLEMS.  CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO FIRE
ALONG THE FRONT IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND STILL THINK THIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL FORM A MCS AND MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT.

MEMORIAL DAY LOOKS TO QUITE THE CHALLENGE.  AVN SUGGESTS FRONT WILL
STALL OVER NORTHERN KANSAS TOMORROW MORNING...WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEAST FLOW FORMING BY AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER
NORTHWEST KANSAS.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE NO PROBLEM WITH
850 DEW POINTS IN THE 13 TO 16C RANGE.  INSTABILITY DOESNT LOOK BE
A PROBLEM EITHER WITH THE AVN FORECASTING CAPES OVER 2500 J/KG...
PROVIDING TONIGHTS CONVECTION DOESNT LEAVE TOO MANY CLOUDS BEHIND.
WOULD EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO FIRE NEAR THE WARM FRONT DURING
THE AFTERNOON...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY MONDAY NIGHT AS A
STRONG SHORT WAVE RIDES ALONG THE FRONT.  CONCERNED ABOUT SEVERE
POTENTIAL ON MEMORIAL DAY WITH SHEAR ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND AMPLE
INSTABILITY...HOWEVER TONIGHTS CONVECTION MAKES IT TOO DIFFICULT TO
PIN DOWN THE AREA WITH THE GREATEST THREAT.

CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SHOULD EXIT THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING.  WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING VERY HIGH...COULD SEE FLOODING BY
TUESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IF HEAVY RAINS FALL TONIGHT.

GENERALLY FAVORED THE AVN/FAN GUIDANCE AS THE NGM IS TOO WARM ON
MEMORIAL AND A LITTLE COOL ON TUESDAY.

.TOP...NONE.

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