Severe Thunderstorm Warning 55, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
249 PM CDT SAT MAY 22 1999

PRECIP TONIGHT MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.

19Z SURFACE MAP SHOWED SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NORTHWESTERN
NEBRASKA.  LOW 60S DEW POINTS WERE BEGINNING TO POOL AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE IN WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE FIRING IN
THIS AREA.  FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS OUR CWA...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
DEBRIS FROM EARLIER MCS WAS HOLDING TEMPS DOWN A BIT...AND A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS WERE DISSIPATING.  HOWEVER SEVERAL BOUNDARIES HAVE
BEEN LAID DOWN FROM EARLIER CONVECTION AND COULD FOCUS REIGNITION OF
STORMS THIS EVENING.

AXIS OF BEST INSTABILITY HAS SET UP OVER WESTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA.  MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN NORTHWEST KS/SOUTHWEST NE WAS
BEING OVERRUN BY MID LEVEL COOL AIR/SHORT WAVE.  EXPECT CONVECTION
TO FIRE THERE SHORTLY THEN DRIFT EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST.  AS COLD
FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST TONIGHT EXPECT CLUSTER OF STORMS TO
DEVELOP/MOVE EASTWARD AS FOCUS OF INSTABILITY SHIFTS EAST.  THOUGH
THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT/MCS...EXPECT MAIN THRUST OF RAIN TO BE ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
CONSIDERED FLASH FLOOD/FLOOD WATCH OVER PARTS OF THE CWA BASED
ON LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES...HOWEVER WITH PROGRESSIVE
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM...WILL NOT ISSUE ONE NOW.

AFTER COLD FRONT CLEARS THE CWA BY SUNDAY MORNING...SURFACE HIGH
SETTLES OVER THE PLAINS BY AFTERNOON.  CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER AIR
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.  FWC/FAN TEMP FORECASTS ARE NOT
TOO FAR OFF AND CANT ARGUE WITH THEM AT THE MOMENT.

.TOP...NONE

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