Severe Thunderstorm Warning 36, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
245 PM CDT SUN MAY 16 1999

...THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT...THEN TEMPERATURES
   MONDAY AND TUESDAY MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES...

AT 19Z...CDFNT WAS EXTENDING FROM ERN NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST
KS...JUST TO THE WEST OF CNK. VISIBLE SATL LOOP SHOWING ENHANCED
CU/TCU FORMING LAST 30 MIN FROM BIE SOUTHWARD TO EAST OF CNK ALONG
WEST EDGE OF INSTABILITY AXIS. EXPECT RAPID TSTM DEVELOPMENT NEXT
FEW HRS NWRN PART OF CWA WITH SOME SVR STORMS. AIRMASS HIGHLY
UNSTABLE WITH CAPE AOA 4000 J/KG. MAIN THREAT MAY BE LARGE
HAIL/STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW TORNADOES EARLY
BEFORE CONVECTION TURNS MORE LINEAR THIS EVENING ALONG CDFNT AS MID
LVL SHEAR WEAK. WILL ISSUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALSO FOR SERN 3/4 OF FA
GIVEN EXPECTED SLOW EWRD MOVEMENT OF CONVECTION AND HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER WITH OBSERVED H85 DEW POINTS AROUND 15C. GROUND
STILL FAIRLY SATURATED FROM RECENT RAINS...SO POTENTIAL FOR QUICK
RUNOFF WITH TSTM ACTIVITY.

AFTER TONIGHT...PREFER ETA MOVEMENT OF CDFNT WHICH IS FASTER THAN
AVN AND MUCH FASTER THAN NGM. THIS WOULD HAVE FROPA IN TOPEKA ARND
09/10Z WITH BULK OF PCPN MON AM CONFINED TO ERN 1/4 OF FA. ETA ALSO
SHOWS GOOD DRYING TO MOVE INTO NCENT KS MON AFTN AND ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF FA BY 00Z TUE. FAIRLY STRONG LO LVL CAA ALSO TO OCCUR
WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE 8C TO 10C RANGE MON AFTN AND 1000/500MB
THICKNESS FALLS OF SOME 150M FROM 00Z MON TO 00Z TUE. WILL KEEP MAX
TEMPS ARND 70F MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH ERN PART OF FA MAY BE CLOSER TO
65-70F AS EXPECT CLOUDS TO HOLD IN THERE LONGEST.

SFC/H85 HIGH PRESS SETTLES OVER THE AREA MON NIGHT FOR CLR/COOL
CONDITIONS. TUESDAY LOOKS SUNNY/MILD AS SFC/H85 RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES
EAST OF CWA. AFTN MAX TEMPS TUE SHOULD BE IN THE 70-75F RANGE GIVEN
COOL START AND WEAK MIXING.

.TOP...TONIGHT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH EASTERN 3/4 OF CWA.

BB

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-162300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1146 AM CDT SUN MAY 16 1999

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT
   ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST KANSAS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
LIKELY INITIATING RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE AIRMASS OVER
THE AREA WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE...SO SOME SEVERE STORMS APPEAR
LIKELY. SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FIRST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN LATER THIS
EVENING OVER NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

THE MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT-
LINE WINDS...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.

THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...BUT A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY HINDER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT UNTIL A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER THIS EVENING.
WITH THE HIGH INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR...A
FEW SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THAT MAY
CONTAIN MESOCYCLONES/ROTATING UPDRAFTS THAT COULD SPAWN TORNADOES.
THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A SQUALL LINE AS
THEY MOVE INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS...LESSENING THE TORNADO THREAT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO LIKELY IN SOME AREAS.

BARLOW

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-162300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1146 AM CDT SUN MAY 16 1999

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT
   ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST KANSAS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
LIKELY INITIATING RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE AIRMASS OVER
THE AREA WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE...SO SOME SEVERE STORMS APPEAR
LIKELY. SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FIRST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN LATER THIS
EVENING OVER NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

THE MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT-
LINE WINDS...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.

THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...BUT A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY HINDER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT UNTIL A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER THIS EVENING.
WITH THE HIGH INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR...A
FEW SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THAT MAY
CONTAIN MESOCYCLONES/ROTATING UPDRAFTS THAT COULD SPAWN TORNADOES.
THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A SQUALL LINE AS
THEY MOVE INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS...LESSENING THE TORNADO THREAT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO LIKELY IN SOME AREAS.

BARLOW