Severe Thunderstorm Warning 100, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE  TOPEKA KS
200 AM CDT SAT AUG 7 1999

...WILL RAIN OR NOT THIS EVENING IS THE MAIN QUESTION...

NONE OF THE MODELS ARE DOING A VERY GOOD JOB WITH THIS FAST MOVING
SYSTEM THAT IS PULLING MUCH OF THE ENERGY WELL AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA...WHILE LEAVING A TRAILING FRONT.

WILL WATCH FRONTAL ZONE AS IT ENTERS NORTHEAST KANSAS FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT MAIN INTENTION IS TO ONLY INCLUDE
A 30 PERCENT FOR THE EAST-CENTRAL ZONES THIS EVENING.

THETA-E AXIS SETS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS/MISSOURI LATER
TONIGHT...WHERE THE SURFACE FRONT BEGINS TO STALL...AS SLIGHTLY
LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINT AIR SETTLES INTO NORTHERN KANSAS.

CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS LIKE A
WINTER PATTERN.  BELIEVE A LARGE PART OF THIS AREA WILL CLEAR AFTER
SUNSET AND NOT ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE TONIGHT IN
THE NORTHEAST.  WITH SIGNIFICANT 925-750MB MOISTURE REMAINING IN
PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY...THIS WILL LIKELY CREATE SOME SC OVER THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL COUNTIES DURING THE DAY.

NORTHEAST/EAST SURFACE FLOW ON SUNDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A SOUTH WIND
IN THE NORTHCENTRAL COUNTIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND AREAWIDE MONDAY.

WILL GENERALLY USE FAN NUMBERS FOR PERIODS 1-3 WITH FWC ON MONDAY.

ROGERS

.TOP...NONE