Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
315 AM CDT MON APR 5 1999

...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS
FORECAST...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NM
GETTING READY TO MAKE A MORE NORTHEAST TURN THROUGH THE TX
PANHANDLE. ALL MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS BUT WHEN IT
COMES TO THE SFC FEATURES THE AVN STILL SEEMS TO BE DOING THE BEST
JOB WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH 12Z
THEN NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KS...IN FACT PRESSURE FALLS INDICATE
AN EVEN MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK THAN THIS POSSIBLY ALONG THE KS
TURNPIKE TODAY. WILL GO MORE WITH THE AVN MODEL THIS FCST AS WELL.

RADAR SHOWING INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KS IN STRONG ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND WAA ALSO IN CONJUNCTION WITH WEAK WAVE AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SYSTEM.  MAIN VORT LOBE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH SQUALL LINE MOVING
THROUGH WESTERN OKLAHOMA SHOULD PIVOT NORTHEAST THROUGH MIDDAY AND
FURTHER ENHANCE PRECIP. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE PREVIOUS FCST OF
CATEGORICAL WORDING AND NEAR 100 PERCENT POPS TODAY...ALTHOUGH DRY
PUNCH MAY ABRUPTLY SHUT OFF PRECIP BY LATTER PORTIONS OF THE
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH IF SYSTEM COMES OUT EVEN FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH
THAN AVN...DRY SLOT COULD EVEN PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA WITH
MORE WRAP AROUND CLOUDS AND PRECIP OVER THE NORTHCENTRAL LINGERING
IN THE EAST AS WELL. EITHER WAY...CLOUDS AND COOL EASTERLY FLOW OVER
THE NORTHCENTRAL PORTIONS TO THE WEST OF SFC LOW TO KEEP TEMPS IN
THE MIDDLE 50S WITH PRECIP AND WILL LOWER HIGHS SLIGHTLY MORE IN
LINE WITH FAN GUIDANCE.

BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTHEAST
OF SFC LOW TRACK WITH NOSE OF HIGHEST INSTABILITY OF MOISTURE ACROSS
EASTCENTRAL AND THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST KANSAS...ALTHOUGH
A HIGHER POTENTIAL APPEARS FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL NOT
MENTION SVR IN THE ZONES AT THIS TIME.

STRONG SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE WAVE AS IT PASSES
THROUGH BY EARLY EVENING WITH DRIER WESTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS...GUSTY AT 15 TO 25 MPH THEN DIMINISHING BY MIDNIGHT AS SFC
LOW PULLS AWAY.

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES STILL IN ORDER FOR TUESDAY WITH MORE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS THAN TODAY.

.TOP...NONE.

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