Tornado Warning 4, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY-RUSKIN, FL
1105 AM EDT SUN MAR 14 1999

LINE OF TSTMS PRESENTLY PUSHING ONSHORE NRN FA AND WILL PUSH EWD THRU
CNTRL PNSULA LATE MRNG INTO EARLY AFTN AND THRU SRN FA EARLY TO MID
AFTN. TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 1PM...BUT 88D NOT INDICATING
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE CELLS OTHER THAN SOME INDICATION OF OFFSHORE
WATERSPOUTS HANDLED WITHIN SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS. TSTMS BEING
SUPPORTED BY 80-100KT WINDS ALF OVR NE GOMEX AND 40-50KT 1K-5K WINDS.
VERTICAL PVA AND LFTD INDEX VALUES LACKING AS MAIN 5H TROF PVA LAGGING
BACK OVR CNTRL GOMEX THIS MRNG AND WILL NOT SWING THRU UNTIL LATE
TDY AND TNGT. LATER ENERGY WILL LIKELY KEEP SOME SHWR POPS INTO TNGT
HANDLED BY CURRENT PACKAGE.

AFTER COORD WITH TLH...WILL HOLD ONTO COASTAL FLOOD WATCH CEDAR KEY TO
VENICE INLET THRU TDY WITH STILL SOME MARGINAL THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL
TIDAL WATER PROBLEMS UNTIL TSTMS PASS THRU AND GET PAST THE PREDICTED
HIGH TIDE BETWEEN 1030 AND 1230PM. PRESENT TIDES ARE LCLY 1-2 FT ABOVE
PREDICTED...AND PRESENT THINKING IS THAT TIDES WILL LIKELY NOT EXCEED
THESE LVLS WHICH WILL PROBABLY KEEP WATER LEVELS UNDER 4 FT MSL CDK AND
UNDER 3 FT MSL SWD...WHICH WILL LESSEN THE THREAT FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
TIDAL PROBLEMS DESPITE WINDS SHIFTG TO BREEZY SWLY AND ONSHORE THIS
AFTN. INITIAL PLANS WOULD BE TO DROP THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
5PM FCST PACKAGE.

OTHERWISE NO FCST CHANGES EXPECTED THIS MORNING EXCEPT FOR ONGOING
MODIFICATIONS TO THE TORNADO WATCH AS THE THREAT ENDS AFTER TSTMS
PASS THRU.

DMR