Severe Thunderstorm Warning 109, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
300 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 1999

AFTER QUIET MORNING...CONVECTION BEGINNING TO FLARE UP...ESPECIALLY
ALONG NE-SW PRE-FRONTAL TROF FROM DESTIN THRU ALBANY. SVR ISSUED FOR
S WALTON COUNTY. BOUNDARY TO DRIFT S THRU REST OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING INTERACTING WI SEA BREZE BOUNDARIES SO EXPECT MORE WARNINGS
SHORTLY. ASSOCIATED FRONT LOCATED ACROSS NCNTRL GEORGIA WITH BROAD
TRAILING CLOUD SHIELD. DELAYED SENDING OUT PRODUCT HOPING FOR MORE
THAN NGM. NO LUCK SO WILL WORK WITH WHAT IS AVAILABLE. WILL DIVERGE
SOME FROM INHERITED FORECAST. SATELLITE WI UPPER E COAST TROF/ASSOCD
SHORT WAVE LIFTING AND COLD FRONT SHUD ALSO SLOW DOWN WITH MORE E
RATHER THAN SE TRAJECTORY. THUS EXPECT FRONT TO MAKE IT ONLY AS FAR
AS MIDWAY ACROSS OUR CWA...OR NE-SW BISECTION FROM AROUND PANAMA
CITY NE THRU ALBANY. SO FORECAST WILL REFLECT THIS..N OF FRONT
...CLEARING SKIES N/NW FLOW AND IMPROVING WX. SOUTH OF
BOUNDARY...CONTINUED S/SW FLOW IN RICH MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT AND POPS
TO REMAIN AROUND 50 PCT.

MIA AND ATL...BLEND OF MODEL TEMPS/DEW POINTS PLACE GA/FL BIG BEND
IN MARGINAL HEAT ADVISORY CITERIA. HEAT ADVISORIES SET TO EXPIRE
THIS AFTN. WILL ALLOW EXPIRATION AND HEADLINE MARGINAL HEAT INDICES
IN THE ZONES. EVENING/MIDNIGHT SHIFTS CAN REEXAMINE GUIDANCE AND
REISSUE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON IF NECESARY.

MARINE...SPLIT MARINE AREA IN HALF MAINLY NW/N FLOW FROM AQQ TO DESTIN
AND SLY FROM AQQ TO SUWANNEE. SEE MIAWRKTL2 FOR DETAILS.

PRELIM NUMBERS...

TLH  75 94 74 94 73 353
PFN  80 92 79 90 78 242
DHN  76 94 74 93 73 22-
ABY  76 94 74 93 73 242
VLD  75 95 73 93 73 352

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