Tornado Warning 2, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
241 AM CST FRI MAR 12 1999

ETA AND AVN SOLUTIONS MATCHING UP FAIRLY WELL IN TIMING POSITIONING
AND STRENGTH OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW. AVN RUNNING JUST A LITTLE
SLOWER BUT THE TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AROUND THE
SAT 06-12Z TIMEFRAME. AT THE SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY
LOCATED FROM THE BIG BEND EASTWARD TO JUST SOUTH OF JCT EAST TO NEAR
HOUSTON WILL TRACK VERY SLOWLY NORTHWARD TODAY. SURFACE LOW EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER WESTERN TX AND PUSH SLOWLY EAST ALONG
THE STATIONARY FRONT AND WITH IT DRAG A PACIFIC FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING IN A DRIER PUSH OF AIR AS MRH LEVELS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ON THE DECREASE. IN ADVANCE OF ALL OF THIS
HOWEVER...PVA AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE WILL BE IN PLACE LATER THIS
MORNING AS UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE PANHANDLE. IN
ADDITION...ATMOSPHERE IS QUITE UNSTABLE LATER THIS MORNING
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES WITH CAPES OF 1800 J/KG AND
LIS OF -8. WILL PUT CHANCE SHRS/TSTMS IN ALL ZONES FOR TODAY WITH
BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT.

AFTER DRIER WESTERLY PUSH SETS UP THIS AFTERNOON...WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE TO RETURN FOR THE UPCOMING OVERNIGHT. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
DYNAMICS HOWEVER. PVA IN ADVANCE OF UPPER LOW WILL EXIT THE SE AND
EASTERN AREAS BY 06Z WITH COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO NORTHERN MOST AREAS
AROUND 00Z SAT. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EARLY TONIGHT
OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHWEST.

EXTENDED LOOKING PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A WARMING TREND.

ABI 061/035 045/026   7320
SJT 068/039 050/027   6210
JCT 076/039 055/030   42-0

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TXZ049-053-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-
139-140-154-155-168>170-130110-

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
553 AM CST FRI MAR 12 1999

...THUNDERSTORMS...A POSSIBLY FEW SEVERE...WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH
OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY...

A WARM FRONT...LOCATED BETWEEN DEL RIO AND JUNCTION THIS MORNING...
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS
OF THE AREA BY AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF THIS FRONT...CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM AND UNSTABLE...WHILE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
WERE PREVAILING NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE REST OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS. AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO WEST TEXAS
LATER THIS MORNING...THIS UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO THE SOUTH WILL BE
FORCED TO RIDE UP AND OVER THE COOLER AIR ACROSS THE NORTH...
GENERATING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NORTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...OR ROUGHLY NORTH OF A SAN ANGELO TO SAN SABA
LINE...THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL.
HOWEVER...ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...OR SOUTH OF THE SAN ANGELO
TO SAN SABA LINE...IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT WIND SHEAR
TO MAKE ISOLATED TORNADOES A THREAT AS WELL.

THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

THIS OUTLOOK WILL RESUME SCHEDULED ISSUANCE ON MARCH 15 1999.
HOWEVER... THIS OUTLOOK WILL CONTINUE TO BE ISSUED AS NEEDED WHEN
THUNDERSTORMS THREATEN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

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