Flash Flood Warning 4, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
300 PM CST THU JAN 28 1999

THE 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT AS IT
REMAINS...FROM NEAR FSM TO JUST NORTH OF ABI.  A LOW OUT IN WEST
TEXAS HELPS AID ABUNDANT MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF...WITH RAIN
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

MODELS AGREE ON ONE THING...WE WILL BE WET.  ETA AND AVN ARE
BEGINNING TO SOMEWHAT AGREE ON THE SOLUTION WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT
MINOR DIFFERENCES DO OCCUR.  BOTH AGREE ON LOW MOVING OUT OF WEST
TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS BY FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN SPLITS WITH A
LOW IN CENTRAL TEXAS AND ANOTHER MOVING INTO GULF.  THEY MOVE THE LOW
NEARLY ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO
NORTHEAST TEXAS FRIDAY EVENING AND INTO THE HEART OF THE FOUR STATE
AREA BY MIDNIGHT SATURDAY.

LOOKING AT THE ETA 300K ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS THE AREA REMAINS WET
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.  A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED
FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA SHOULD FOLLOW SOON.  NOW WE KNOW IT WILL
BE WET BUT WHAT ABOUT SEVERE WEATHER...AND IF SO WHAT TYPE.

LOOKS LIKE BEST INSTABILITIES WILL BE OVER THE EAST TEXAS LAKES AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN MOVING UP INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA FRIDAY EVENING.  MID LEVEL SHEAR LOOKS DECENT ENOUGH TO AT
LEAST HAVE ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS THE PREVIOUS MENTIONED AREA.
ETA SHOWS THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE JET MOVING INTO THE EAST
TEXAS LAKES AREA DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN INTO THE THE CENTER OF
THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT.  SO SEVERE WX THREAT FOR NOW LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH MAINLY WIND...HAIL AND
ONLY ISOLATED TORNADOES.

FOR THE FORECAST HEAVY AMOUNTS OF RAIN WILL BE THE FOCUS...KEEP
80 PERCENT OR BETTER IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA. LET MIDNIGHT SHIFT HANDLE INTRODUCTION OF POSSIBLE
SEVERE WORDING FOR EAST TEXAS...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND PARTS OF
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN TAPER OFF
RAIN FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY ENDING BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

WILL GO SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE AGAIN TONIGHT THEN BALANCE TEMPS
BETWEEN FWC AND FAN FOR LATTER PERIODS.

THANKS NEW...LIT...FTW AND SPC FOR COORDINATION.

SHV 59/64/52/60 +++7     MLU 60/65/54/60 +++7    11