Flash Flood Warning 16, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
328 AM CST FRI JAN 29 1999

THIS MORNING SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS TEXAS FROM BIG BEND
INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS...NORTH LA AND MS. IN THE LOWER LEVELS OVER
NRTHERN HALF OF FOUR STATE REGION SURFACE WINDS EAST TO NORTHEAST
WITH MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS. WINDS
80H AND ABOVE MORE SOUTHERLY WITH ABUNDANT AND DEEP MOISTURE OVER
CWA AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO 3RD PERIOD. MODELS SIMILAR THROUGH
FIRST HALF OF FORECAST PERIOD AND THEN THEY DEVIATE. NGM MUCH SLOWER
WITH MOVEMENT OF SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW WEST OF EL PASO TX.
ETA MODEL MOVES THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EAST NORTHEAST AND TO ALONG THE
RED RIVER NORTH OF DAL TX BY EARLY SAT AM WHILE ETA KEEPS THE UPPER
LOW S OF ABI TX. DURING THE DAY SATURDAY NGM MOVES UPPER LOW TO NEAR
THE PREVIOUS POSITION (N OF DFW) FORECAST BY THE ETA MODEL WHILE ETA
MOVES THE LOW TO NEAR FSM AR. AT THIS POINT I DONT THINK THAT EITHER
WILL BE THE CORRECT POSITION AND WILL TEND TO AVERAGE THE POSITION
TO MORE SE OK AND NE TX MORE IN LINE WITH THE SLOWER NGM.  SURFACE
LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER TEXAS DURING THE
DAY TODAY. THE SUFACE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOW MOVING TO NEAR THE RED RIVER OF NE TX/SE
OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN ACROSS
ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. DURING THE DAY TODAY WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING
STORM SYSTEM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AS WELL AS
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. DURING THE EVENING SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE GIVEN THAT THE EAST TEXAS...NORTH
LA...AND SW AR AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SE OK AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. DUE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...
LARGE SCALE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...AND CONTINUED SUPPLY OF GULF
AND PACIFIC MOISTURE RAINFALL WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. WILL CONTINUE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NGM FWC NUMBERS...AS WELL AS THE OVERNIGHT LOWS SINCE
N LA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF SURFACE SYSTEM...AND WITH
TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS N LA SATURDAY TEMPERATURES MAY NOT
REACH NGM FWC NUMBERS.

SHV 67/61/66/45  ++52  MLU 68/63/68/47 ++62  06